SFWA (the Science Fiction/Fantasy Writers of America) seems hell bent on leather to self destruct. Which is a pity because I had really determined that one of my first major goals would be qualifying to join. If you care, I'm sure you've read about it (Making Light, Whatever, Charlie's Diary, Elizabeth Bear, Tobias Buckell, Andrew Burt's response) and if not, you can skip to the next post.
Right now, if I would qualify, I would put my chances of joining at 20% or lower. Dave Kletcha pretty much nails it here. That 20% can be explained because one, I've wanted to join for so long and still consider it a goal marker (an early one, BTW), and two, Griefcom is still good. As others have pointed out there are now other resources to replace much of what SFWA was good for. Once there is another resource for Griefcom, SFWA will no longer be relevant.
For the SFWA leadership (and particularly Mr. A. Burt) you continue to tell us how intelligent you all are (particularly Mr. Burt). As the great axiom for writing goes, it's time to show, not tell. If Mr. Burt, as rumors say, does run for President and wins, my probability of joining SFWA will go somewhere south of Zero.