(I've typed and then deleted this post three times already. I guess I should just post it. Hope it all still makes sense.)
So, I'm driving into work on Friday, and this story comes on NPR, Publishers Push for New Rules on Unsold Book. In the story they talk about the crazy world of returns, and how expensive it's getting shipping books back and forth several times.
And then the clinker where the CEO of Barnes and Nobel talks about how the policy of returns is insane and that the industry should come up with a different idea. Like printing fewer titles.
Shazam! (insert ominous music here)
With fewer titles they can then focus on making all bestsellers. They don't have to ship, stock, mark-down, dust titles that won't sell more than a handful of books. B&N could standardize their catalog (centralized control of the market) more. "Everybody will buy these books because we're not going to offer them a choice," is what the CEO is saying.
Now, there are benefits to fewer titles. Maybe books would have longer shelf lives (which translates to better sales), the share of marketing money and drive would see each book get more, etc, etc.
However, fewer books means if the publisher doesn't think they can sell at least 20,000 units of your title, you're not going to get a contract. How many authors out there would be published with that standard? See how few hands were raised. Okay, of those left, how many of you would have made the cut with your first books published?
See why that ominous music is still playing.
The small press renaissance would be killed. New author development, already stifled, would be knifed. And, within a decade, the industry as we know it would be radically different. And I would predict, B&N which is the 800lb gorilla in the room (with buying and distribution) would be dead. Yes, what the CEO is asking for would lead to his own company's demise. Publishing relies on fresh blood. Sure, walk into the horror section and you can evenly divide the place by King/Koontz/Straub and Everybody Else. Look at the shelf space for SF/F and you can see the heavy weights taking up the shelf space. But all those other titles keep the whole ball of wax rolling along. Who knows who will be the next BNA? Hemingway wasn't Hemingway when he was writing for The Kansas City Star.
It's not all bad. Young and mid-list authors would be forced to develop web delivery of their product. Someone would figure out how to monetize it. Creation would still go on. The signal to noise ratio would worsen, but I think the markets would shake out. Print-on-demand may actually come into being, as consumers would be forced to this option. However, that means successful authors would have to become their own publishers (which is already happening with the loss of marketing money and with the direction of self-publishing). This, IMHO, is not a good thing.
With fewer titles B&N would see an immediate profit increase as overhead decreased. After a few years, though, customers would wander away in search of their next book fix. Sales would decline. B&N would look at the last time they made a profit (when they cut titles) and redo the actions (cut more titles). Eventually no one would really care to enter their stores except for textbooks (which are leading the way for electronic delivery). As they watch the top line dive for ground cover the B&N executives would decry the death of the printed page, all the while it would be thriving in niche markets and stores. If B&N didn't control so much of the distribution chain, I would say independent stores would reblossom. Unfortunately, with the direction to fewer titles being given by the 800lb gorilla, the supply of new titles would be choked off at the source.
This is the same death Apple nearly suffered as it focused on a smaller core audience, and then started sub-dividing that audience. Fortunately, Steve Jobs came back without nearly a decade of "focus on the core" being drummed into his head, and then the digital music revolution happened.
The best thing to happen would be to have the CEO deploy his golden parachute early.
2 comments:
The small press renaissance would be killed.
I'm not so sure. I think the returns model is going to change, not because of the expense of it from a bricks-and-mortar standpoint, but because alternative methods of distribution are going to obviate it. I see suggestions like this as the reduction of the physical location to a niche shop catering to the casual reader.
As it is, I don't think Subterranean Press (a very heavy hitter among small presses, it seems) does a lot of bookstore distribution, so the net effect on them would be exactly zero.
Ironically, in that event I think we would see an almost cyclical iteration in the life of genre publishing. We went from dozens of relatively small genre presses to basically a handful of imprints, almost all owned by bigger publishing houses. If those guys decide to reduce their lines, they'll put high-quality editors and other staff out of work. Many may still want to keep a hand in publishing genre, so they'll go jump into small presses or start their own. Fewer authors in the big houses will mean more authors for the little guys, and they'll still wind up with top-level editing and such.
Those presses will still wind up with breakout titles on account of there now only being a handful of editors for a handful of houses buying a handful of "sure things" every year; they're bound to miss some gems and everyone knows that it's a hit-and-miss game. So some of those small presses will get major attention, and some of those books will get print runs far beyond original expectations.
Success breeds success, of course, and maybe some authors who could have sold at a big house will go small instead. And eventually the big boys will wonder what it is they're missing out on in the genre trenches and start again with the second big buy up of genre publishers.
Or I could be talking out my ass. But it's fun to speculate.
Dave, I don't think you're talking out of the other end. I don't know all of Subterranean's business model, and I've seen them sell out some titles before even going to press, so I think some of their direct to consumer part of the business is right on the money. And at independent booksellers, the small press is going very strong, but I could also go into my local B&N or Borders and order those books as well.
This is where I think the weight of B&N within the distribution part of the business will come into play. From what I've heard (second hand) B&N has already frozen out some players and produced a chilling effect on title that are chosen by the big houses. Again, that's all second hand, so I could also be speaking out of my arse.
I also forgot to put in this version listening to Tom Doherty talk about the streamlining and consolidation of the distribution network that has gone on. How back when he started the distributors had area managers that could help place books in individual stores (ie., this grocery story would get 5 of title A and 3 of title B, this other grocery story 2 miles away would get 2 of A and 6 of B, each store would sell all of those books, but wouldn't be able to sell more) and how now it's mostly decided on a larger regional (say, statewide) basis.
I think what the CEO of B&N is suggesting is a nationwide distribution plan (ie. all B&N stores get exactly the same books if they're in NYC or CIncinnati).
If the small press would fill that marketing need that I see authors being forced to do, if they can make it pay, then I think the small presses will continue. As I see it now, there's very little marketing done by small presses (outside places like conventions), most of it is done by the authors.
If independent booksellers would also have a major reversal of fortune, that would also help counter this proposed trend.
However, for all of this to work would require a new distribution network. If that is web-based direct to the consumer, then independent booksellers will continue to decline. To make sure there is still a walk-in way of purchasing books (still the majority of sales from what I know), a "to store" new channel will need to be created.
I'm not if that all made sense, I'm really tired. Time for bed.
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