Stay safe all my friends on the East Coast.
"Instead, Xach’itee’aanenh T’eede Gaay was part of a previously unknown population that diverged genetically from the ancestors of Native Americans about 20,000 years ago, Dr. Willerslev and his colleagues concluded. They now call these people Ancient Beringians." Something new has been added. (Grokked from Mrs Tadd)
"The first problem is designing the tracks. Permafrost becomes unstable as it thaws, complicating any layout that puts the tracks on a slope. Digging lines for fiberoptic cables is not feasible, magnetic interference from space messes with satellites (so signaling must be done with microwave emitters and VHF backups), and infrastructure along the route is designed to keep people indoors." Designing the industrial scale transportation and war making systems needed to exploit the newly opening Arctic. Do I need to mention that the Russians are way ahead in this race? (Grokked from Tobias Buckell)
When I say these people really are dumb as rocks and prime examples of 1) white privilege at work, 2) prime candidates for why we should have a punishing estate tax for estates over $10 million, this is what I mean. "Left-leaning comedian Ellen DeGeneres must be part of a 'deep state' conspiracy, President Donald Trump's son Eric said on Twitter Tuesday night, after apparently misunderstanding how social media works… The heir to the Trump real estate fortune made the assertion by tweeting a screenshot of which accounts the company's algorithm suggested he follow, including the Twitter streams of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Ellen DeGeneres." Now I do know many people who would be all in for an Ellen presidency, and while fabulous I think she's a little too busy with her own entertainment empire to have any time to secretly run the country as well. (Grokked from Joshua Parker)
"For thousands of households where flooding is only expected to get worse, the state of Louisiana agrees. The state has even crafted a plan to buy out the most vulnerable homes along the coast, many of which are occupied by elderly and poor residents who stayed after Hurricane Katrina. But officials say there is no money to put that plan into action." It's almost like they sort of know climate change is happening, but can't bring themselves to full accept it. So all those people get screwed over. So remember all those people saying we can't afford to change things to address climate change and the opposite argument about how it'll cost more if we do nothing? Guess which side is winning so far.
So, how's the Brexit going? "The Centre for Economic Policy Research calculates that the Brexit vote has already cost the UK economy £300m a week. By the end of 2018 that will add up to a total of £60 billion, or almost 3% of GDP in lost output." But hey, no more Polish plumbers, am I right? (Grokked from Vince O'Conner)
"So why are CEOs paid that much anyway?… Mainly because many of the board directors believe that they are one out of a tiny pool of people who can actually lead their company. At least, that’s what Donatiello and his colleagues found when they surveyed directors serving on the boards of the largest 250 U.S. companies." Add in the clear knowledge that boards don't do much either, and suffer form impostor syndrome like everyone does, then realize that the CEO also determines how much the board is paid and there you have a recipe for high CEO (and board) pay. For the rich, there is never enough money.
"Two sources with knowledge of the decision confirmed to The Hill that Sessions will rescind the so-called Cole memo, which ordered U.S. attorneys in states where marijuana has been legalized to deprioritize prosecution of marijuana-related cases." They're coming for your pot. Again, while states have legalized it, marijuana is still a Schedule 1 Controlled Substance for the federal government. So much for States Rights and the "let the states experiment" mentality (which was just a smoke screen anyway).
"'If we want to protect liberal democracies, we must be strong and have clear rules,' (French President Macron said…cHe also said France's audiovisual regulator would also be given additional power to 'fight any destabilization attempt by television channels controlled or influence by foreign states,' according to the BBC." Not sure that'll work, but you do you, France.
"President Trump on Wednesday announced that he is disbanding a controversial panel studying alleged voter fraud that became mired in multiple federal lawsuits and faced resistance from states that accused it of overreach." Not to mention it was a wild goose chase to begin with. Of course now the people who think there is substantial voter fraud (like the President) can continue to claim wide spread fraud even through the minuscule amounts of fraud (the majority of which has been not deliberate and easily found and corrected for) amount to less than the sampling error. But before we start celebrating, they've just moved the "investigation" to the Department of Homeland Security (which does have some subpoena powers).
"Why, then, has the end-of-facts idea gained so much purchase in both academia and the public mind? It could be an example of what the World War II–era misinformation experts referred to as a 'bogie' rumor—a false belief that gives expression to our deepest fears and offers some catharsis. It’s the kind of story that we tell one another even as we hope it isn’t true." New research isn't confirming the "boomerang effect" of attempting to change someone's false narrative with facts. For the past 17 years I've been noticing the "boomerang" to challenging someone's internal narrative with effective facts, and not all of them have been trolls. So what I think is going on here is a sampling error (who is involved in the sampling) and what ideas are being challenged (or, "does accepting that this idea I hold is wrong make me a bad person?"). But I'll agree there are many inferences being made by the studies that the research itself doesn't support (and that are mostly being pushed by people who have a financial stake, notice whom in the article are "consulting" to help their clients effect "change"). (Grokked from Tobias Buckell)
I mentioned on twitter that I think we're experiencing a Reality TV (which are highly scripted and have only a passing relationship with actual reality) White House. Besides the "Bannon/Trump tit for tat while still keeping in touch" you have "President Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, is suing the Justice Department and special counsel Robert Mueller, alleging that Mueller has exceeded his mandate by investigating matters unrelated to the 2016 election." The suit will be tossed as Mueller's mandate specifically allows him to follow all leads to whatever ends. So it can't help Manafort or protect him, but it does offer some protection to the president and feeds into the narrative of political bias and "exceeding his (Mueller's) mandate" that the GOP is trying to foist on America. And there is the all to present rift between Manafort and the president. So it seems strange for him to do this (I'm surprised his lawyers didn't quash it) without being in coordination with the White House (or Moscow).
So you may be wondering why I'm saying 2018 will see at leas the start of a recession. Well, mostly it's because of watching market forecaster's glee over "everything is up" coupled with the "you should get into the market now" (which, BTW, "buy low, sell high", not the reverse). Market analyst (and market futures) are inherently reactionary. This is why people have to be reminded of the axiom, "past performance is not indicative of future performance" when it comes to stocks, bonds, future, and mutuals. But all the forecasters do it. Also, every forecaster is essentially a hype-man. It's their job to get your money into the markets. So besides the overwhelming "the self-watering garden that is capitalism is doing wonderfully" smoke being blown up our collected asses (see 2016, 2000, 1991, 1982…) there is also major moves to get the initiated and uninformed into the market. This is what is commonly referred to as "fleecing the masses." And then there are the canaries. Reports are business leading was down in 2017 (this could be because of massive profits some companies are self-financing now, or anticipation of new tax laws, but it also foreshadows lower output). Car sales, while close to record numbers, decreased last year. While "consumer confidence" is up, we're not buying big ticket items. Home sales are being affected by continued low supply (ie, we're still not building) and specifically they aren't building reasonably priced homes. Most home purchases are not new buyers, but people downsizing or upsizing or buying second home or income properties. Also word is sub-prime loans were the growth market last year (sub-primes that aren't first home buyers). I've tried to find new stories for all of these points and Google is failing (somehow their algorithms are also geared to the "buy buy buy" side). Add to that the deregulatory high-speed lane we're in ("Donald Trump campaigned like a populist. But for the last year, he's governed like a plutocrat.") and all the references to how our tax laws and economy are looking a lot like 1929 (and these are being said as a "positive thing") and I'm feeling very nervous.
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