There's battle lines being drawn.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong.
Young people speaking their minds
getting so much resistance from behind

Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Linkee-poo would like to walk you through a field of wildflowers, and I'd like to check you for ticks

"The number of elephants that died after falling down a waterfall in Thailand has increased to 11… It is thought the animals may have been trying to save a baby elephant that slipped over the edge."

"The aches, the sneezing, the sore throat, the exhaustion — flu season is here and you want to be prepared." Get the goddamn shot.

"But a new smartphone app takes advantage of parents' fondness for snapping pictures of their children to look for signs that a child might be developing a serious eye disease."

"Researchers analyzing data from the Rover are extrapolating from the data that rocks enriched by mineral salts are evidence of briny ponds that went through periods of drying out and overflowing. Those deposits serve as a watermark made by climate fluctuations as Mars’ climate changed from a wet one to the current frigid ice desert it is today."

Apparently Index Funds (full disclosure, I endorse investing in indexed funds because of their low fees), having gained popularity, are everything that is wrong with the economy.

"Index funds now control half… the U.S. stock mutual fund market, giving the biggest funds enormous power to influence decisions and demand better returns at the companies in which they invest trillions of dollars." But Index Funds aren't "activist investors", and they were never meant to be. "Actively managed funds also routinely support management in proxy ballots." But because they can sell the stocks to show their displeasure, somehow this makes them "better." I'm calling bullshit. In truth, hardly any shareholder movements change anything in the management of corporations. At best they can bring "awareness" to the board. Now there is a point about "selling" a stock as being a "message." But it's a very weak message. And it's not like a board thinks, "oh, wait, GQ Public sold their 0.5% stake, what are we doing wrong?"

"Burry recently told Bloomberg that he sees another massive bubble happening. This time, he says, it's in index funds. Instead of relying on financial experts to actively pick winners and losers, index funds buy everything in a market, passively going up and down as the entire market goes up and down."

This is a class-war moment. As many people realize the advantage of Index Funds and move their 401(k) investing to these, the people really being hurt are the investment banks who control the other funds (see, Index Funds are often "poo pooed" in the industry, at least in public) who are watching their revenues from those fees diminish. So now they're launching a PR campaign targeted at the least informed customers (ie. people without a lot of money), the people who want to invest "for the betterment of the world", people who won't see what they're doing. There are many "activist institutional investors" who would like to get support (looks at CalPers, TIAA, and a few other state retirement programs), who have people on staff to do the research and believe they need to act in the best interests of their investors. I applaud them (and have supported their efforts). But here's the hard truth (if you've ever owned stocks), your proxy statement doesn't mean very much. Most people don't return them or show up at meetings (and most companies have rules those un-voted shares automatically count to the direction of the board). And yes, there is a hellofalotata things with corporations that really need to change (you could write a whole book, and people have, about executive compensation and the relationship between the C-level officers and the boards and how they're always supporting each others' raises while they gut their employees' pay and benefits). But this attack on Index Funds isn't about those things. It's about who makes the money from your 401(k) and how they're not making enough. Also, since Index Funds are seen as the "redheaded step-child" of Wall Street, most investment companies didn't create any, seeing their marketing of "we know know who is going to win, give us 2%" as the best strategy. Well, those active market funds typically (yes, there are some outliers) don't perform as well as a broad indexed fund over the long run.

So here I'm just going to make my pitch. At best in this market your fund may bring in 5% (all number APR) over the long run (like over a decade, scrutinize any pamphlet that makes it seem like they're doing better because there's usually some heinous statistical fuckery going on, read the footnotes). If your mutual fund is taking 1 or 2% (seems reasonable, right… wait for it), that means your return is actually 3 or 4%. Now, if you're fund is taking 0.03%, you're back to a 4.97% return. Ask anyone who has paid a mortgage what the difference 1 or 2 percentage points can mean. And here's the thing, there's no reason why actively managed funds need to charge 1 or 2%. Their research doesn't really cost that much. However their yearly bonuses do.

"This year, Walmart is training more than 1 million employees using virtual reality. And moving companies, airlines, food processing and financial firms are all using VR in different ways. In the virtual world, cashiers are taught to show greater empathy, mechanics learn to repair planes and retail workers experience how to deal with armed robbery." VR, it's the new thing. So at the hospital we do a variety of training all year long including some that while not VR are computer simulations, so let me give you a hint about these things. Sometimes it's more advantageous to figure out the "game" of the simulation than it is to actually learn or practice the skill.

"The proposed rule from the Labor Department would allow employers to require more widespread sharing of tips with 'back of the house' coworkers, such as cooks and dishwashers. The rule makes clear, however, that employers cannot pocket those tips or use them to reward managers and supervisors." I'm sure this totally won't be abused and allow restaurant owners to pay their kitchen staff less than the regular minimum wage. I have a great idea, let's just get rid of the lower minimum for tipped employees?

"As Muslim Kazakhs, Zhanibek's mother and sister are among the targets of a sprawling security operation by Chinese authorities. Human rights experts estimate that 1.5 million Uighur Muslims and members of other ethnic minority groups, including Chinese-born Kazakhs, have been detained in Xinjiang since 2016. Former detainees say that while in detention they were forced to memorize Chinese communist propaganda and learn Mandarin and were occasionally violently interrogated or beaten." And now they're moving them to prisons that the Chinese government states are prisons, no "re-education camps."

"(Joshua) Brown, 28, lived across the hall from Jean and testified about the night he was killed… A preliminary investigation shows Brown was shot in the back and thigh, a government official said on condition of anonymity." (Grokked from Laura J Mixon)

How go the Trade Wars? "Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen 'entirely' on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected." Captain Obvious gets a promotion. (Grokked from Elizabeth Bear)

"The IRS audits the working poor at about the same rate as the wealthiest 1%. Now, in response to questions from a U.S. senator, the IRS has acknowledged that’s true but professes it can’t change anything unless it is given more money." Also they're mandated by law during the GHW Bush years (IIRC).

Remember that story about the USDA allowing chicken processors to speed up their production lines? They aren't the only ones. "Workers are suing over a new U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) rule that allows pork processing plants to speed up production lines, something their union says could endanger employees." Note that animal processing plants have a high incidence of cutting/crushing injuries and repetitive stress injuries. Also they are mostly staffed by immigrants. (Grokked from Kathryn Cramer)

"Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio, on Monday criticized President Donald Trump for requesting that Ukraine and China investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, a notable break from the majority of congressional Republicans, who have defended the President or remained silent." Oh look, concerned Senators are once again concerned. Sorry, Rob, I've seen this play before and I'm not buying the ticket again.

"'President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdraw to make it look like we are getting something—but we are not getting something," the National Security Council source told Newsweek. 'The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that's the bottom line.'" The art of the deal, giving them everything they want. (Grokked from Joy Reid)

"Kurdish allies of the U.S. say President Trump's decision to pull troops from the Syria-Turkey border is 'shocking' and deflating — and they warn that the U.S. is duplicating a mistake it made in Iraq, where it has ceded partial control to Iran." His great and unmatched wisdomness is a fucking fool. Or, you know, once again he's making life easy for the Russians.

"'OK, OK! No, no, no! Before you judge Trump, he is technically correct: There is nobody who matches his wisdom,' joked (Trevor) Noah, adding, 'No other person had the wisdom to stare directly into a solar eclipse.'"

"Even Ivanka Trump, the 'princess royal' of the West Wing, is being sucked into the vortex of scandal that has encompassed her father’s administration. In the past week, her husband, Jared Kushner, lost his security clearance, lost his P.R. guard dog, was revealed as a top intelligence target for foreign spies, and was reported to have met with banking executives in the White House shortly before his family’s company received nearly half a billion dollars in loans… While the First Couple braced for an Intercept story that Kushner’s father had failed to secure a loan from the Qatari government just weeks before Kushner backed a blockade of Qatar, CNN dropped another bombshell: United States counterintelligence officials are probing a Trump Organization real-estate deal in Canada in which Ivanka played a leading role." What they didn't realize is that the office wasn't a get out of jail free card, but instead is a spotlight. (Editor note: as pointed out by Dan this is from 2018, it's from 2018, we've been dealing with this for so long now.) (Grokked from Kathryn Cramer)

Having a difficult time keeping up? "The talk from the Trump team is becoming increasingly hard to follow. This week, On the Media takes a look at the conspiracy thinking that’s taken over the executive branch. Plus, leaders at Fox News search for a path forward amidst infighting and impeachment drama. And, a deep dive into Ukrainian politics and the Trump connection."

"Democrats are weighing steps they can take to conceal the whistleblower's identity in a potential interview."

And then there were two. "This (second) whistleblower has first-hand knowledge of allegations listed in a previous whistleblower’s complaint, the lawyer representing this person, Mark Zaid, told ABC News on Sunday." What happens when people realize the jig is up and someone has squealed? They'll squeal themselves to save their own necks. It could also be someone who "thought it was wrong, but wasn't sure and couldn't talk to anyone." OR it could be someone who thought they might either be caught up in the mole sweep, or thought they were about to lose their job as Trump cuts the NSC staff in half.

Polls are a Rorchak test at best (note the Hill's poll is a week old), conformational bias at their worst. Just like the presidential race, these polls aren't good for anything but a baseline at this point. We'll see where we are closer to Xmas.

"The Trump administration has blocked Gordon Sondland, President Trump's ambassador to the European Union, from testifying before Congress Tuesday." So much for cooperating.

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