The alligators must have slept in this morning
"I would argue that there is nothing more sustaining to long-term creative work than time and space – these things cost money – and the fact that some people have access to it for reasons that are often outside of their control continues to create an ecosystem in which the tenor of the voices that we hear from most often remains similar. It is no wonder, I say often to students, that so much of the canon is about rich white people. Who else, after all, has the time and space to finish a book. Who else, after all, as the book is coming out, has the time and space and money to promote and publicize that book?" Yes, we all know exceptions to this hard truth (Gods, let me be a hack like Stephen King, Stephanie Meyer, or Dan Brown. Amen). But I hate to break it to you all, there is money to be made writing. The majority of that money has nothing to do with fiction or books (yes, yes, the fiction thing is iffy in much "non-fiction" writing, I've seen Christmas in Connecticut, and it still works that way, except for the happy ending). In genre writing, the numbers on writer compensation have not moved in decades (there has been some movement in the past 5-10 years, so hurrah for that, but it means you get to buy the good peanut butter). And erotica isn't the cash cow it used to be (thanks, Amazon), although Romance still seems to be chugging along (but you'll need to crank out several books per year). Here's a handy guide (completely apocryphal, but it helps, this is also true for musicians and video game athletes), for every 1 who gets paid more than pizza money, there's thousands who try (and tens of thousands who say they want to). For every 1 who gets paid that can take a good vacation with that money, there are hundreds who get paid pizza money. For every 1 who can quit the day job there tens of vacation pay writers. For every "successful" writer there are more than a handful of those who can quit the day job. But then in this modern American economy, most people are working one or more side-hustles (like writing). (Grokked from Laura J Mixon)
"This is the new reality with hospice. Death has returned home, where most of us say we want to die. But there seems to be a cost that’s difficult to quantify for those left behind." (Grokked from Xeni Jardin)
"About 4 in 10 American adults are obese, and nearly 1 in 10 is severely so, government researchers said Thursday." When they say "obese" most people picture "My 600lb Life", not what would be considered "hefty."
"President Donald Trump on Wednesday placed Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the US government response to the novel coronavirus, amid growing criticism of the White House's handling of the outbreak." You might remember Pence's fantastic response to healthcare issues in Indiana, where under his watch there was a large HIV outbreak in rural areas because he refused to launch needle exchanges for 4 years. Or his support for conversion therapy (for gay teens). Or his unwillingness to be alone in a room with a woman who isn't his wife. Yeah, that guy is in charge of our response. We're all gonna die. "'We expect we will see community spread in this country,' said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. 'It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness.'"
And what do we have here? "Mr. Trump said the risk to Americans remained very low, but his bid to ease nerves — and shore up jittery stock markets in an election year — came as officials confirmed the first case of suspected 'community transmission' of the COVID-19 disease in the country: a patient in California with no recent travel history to coronavirus hotspots or known contact with infected people." Less than a few hours after the president's address.
"Dow futures dropped 200 points, or 0.7%, in the early hours of Thursday after US health authorities said they've discovered a case of novel coronavirus in the country without knowing its origin… Other major US indexes also declined in premarket trading. S&P 500… and Nasdaq… futures each fell 0.8%." As of this writing the Dow Jones is down 500+ points and there appears to be another hard bottom at 26,000. Note that yesterday there was a similar hard bottom at 27,000. We're now in "Correction Territory" (which means a 10% drop from the high).
"Still, some U.S. health care workers on the front line, including Maureen Dugan, worry they are not properly prepared… Dugan is a veteran nurse at the University of California, San Francisco Medical Center, where two coronavirus patients were earlier transferred this month. UCSF is one of the premiere hospitals in the country, but Dugan says her frustrations are mounting, because she says her employer offered little notice or training to those caring for the infected patients." We've received emails that state in confusing language, "we're making plans." Not that they're stocking up on N95, or going to train special teams. But it's hard to do that when you barely have enough nurses and staff to make daily rounds.
And, just as a general comment, SARS-CoV2, which causes COVID-19 (the disease) is a serious concern, but it's not this "ZOMG" hysteria level of concern. I'll also state there are a lot of unknowns here concerning the virus and its transmission vectors. And, frankly, we really don't fully trust the data coming out of China. What we do know (or think we know) is about 20-30% of people who contract SARS-CoV2 have a serious illness which about half of that will require a hospital stay. There's a 2% mortality rate from COVID-19. Currently in the US for the annual flu that mortality rate is 0.13%. And the flu kills a lot of people every year. The major concern in healthcare is that we're unable to stop the spread of SARS-CoV2 and that it will become a "common" disease (like chickenpox, mumps, measles, and the annual flu). What stopped the spread of the Spanish Influenza? Well, basically nothing did, everyone who would die from catching the disease was dead, herd immunity held the line, and the virus eventually found no one new to infect and/or mutated enough that it was no longer a threat to humans (both of those things are natural processes and not directed action). SARS-CoV2 appears to have broken out from containment which means it'll be much harder to quash and the likelihood that it will burn through the population is growing daily. SO now the question becomes do we have enough healthcare infrastructure to withstand a pandemic (the answer is "no", although the politicians and top healthcare people will hedge their language to not incite panic). There is some evidence that the 20-30% figure (and the 2% mortality rate) are high estimates because we don't have an effective, quick test for the virus and that there are many people infected who only display minor symptoms (this is why taking people's temperatures is an important step here, although this is also a reminder that 98.6° is an average and there is some new evidence that number has been changing). If humans were rational actors and our economy had certain protections (like universal quality healthcare and mandated paid sick days) this wouldn't be as much of a concern. But we're not, and we don't have those. Expect to hear campaigns about "check your temperature" and "if you're sick stay home." These won't work to any large degree (raise your hand if you've gone to work sick), but the government will have to be seen to be doing something.
So, am I worried? Yes. If reports can be believed, more than likely I will be exposed to the virus at some point. My main concern is to not spread it to those closest to me (note, I don't have to be sick to spread the virus). But I have been exposed to Influenza B and A this year and I haven't contracted the disease (thank you flu shot and aseptic technique) or given it to anybody that I know of. I've been exposed to TB, MRSA, C-diff and a host of other contagious diseases and so far have avoided contracting or spreading those. Again, there are a ton of unknowns here. If an effective vaccine is created it'll be years before it's both proven and widely available (and note our government officials aren't promising it'll be "cheap").
I am more concerned about how the fear of COVID-19 will be used in politics and social context. You don't need a large government, and conservatives will cut and cut, until something bad comes along. And then you realize that you've cut too much and there ain't shit you can do in the short term because you first have to rebuilt the organizations and appoint actual competent leaders to the positions that you've (until now) decimated, ignored, used temporary appointees, and given several people the jobs of ten people.
Wednesday in America… "A worker at the sprawling Molson Coors complex in Milwaukee opened fire Wednesday afternoon, killing five employees before taking his own life, the company's chief executive officer and police said."
The AI arms race. "This caused the algorithm to classify the review as 'positive,' instead of 'negative.' The demonstration highlights an uncomfortable truth about AI—that it can be both remarkably clever and surprisingly dumb…" (including the fact that they changed 3 words, not two in their example). Again, what we have is not AI, we've simply waited so long for it, and people's careers are staked to its development, that we've drawn the line behind where we are and declared we crossed the finish line. In 2001, Dave had to suit up and distract HAL to defeat it. In I, Mudd, they just had to feed Norman/the computer nonsense. With current AI you just need to split your infinitives or put tape on road signs.
"In Japan, these high-tech toilets are everywhere: hotels, restaurants, bus stations, rest stops and around 80% of homes. It's glorious. Then, I come back to the United States, and our toilets are stuck in the age of dirty coal mines and the horse and buggy. They basically have one feature: flush. No heated seats. No nice smells and sounds. No sanitizing blasts of liquid. It's like cleaning your dishes without water. It's gross. And it got me thinking: Why can't we have high-tech toilets too?" And then the reporter completely misses that the reason we can't is during WWII American GIs in Europe experienced bidets while overseas. But the majority of those experiences were in brothels, so when they came back to the US they equated bidet with lasciviousness and so eschewed bringing them into their own homes. Thank you latent and misunderstood Victorian social custom. And that, youngins, is why we can't have nice things.
How's that "religious freedom" in India coming along? "Abdul Samar was praying at a mosque in the northeast of India's capital on Tuesday evening when protesters stormed in brandishing weapons, attacking worshipers and setting the building ablaze… 'They brought batons and stones inside the mosque and the people outside had guns as well. We had to stop praying and run away,' Samar, whose eye was severely injured in the attack, said."
"Efforts by the Trump administration to increase deportations to Laos have galvanized the Hmong community in the U.S., and some leaders are speaking out in ways they haven't before." Oh, FFS! "The Hmong, a Southeast Asian ethnic group, fought as U.S. allies in the Vietnam War. After the war, tens of thousands of them were forced to flee Laos and a crackdown from its Communist government. They came to the U.S. as refugees beginning in the 1970s." And those are the people we want to deport. Sure, the administration will again try to say "it's only the criminals" but how long did that last with the Latinos and Hispanics (narrator voice, it never was about "the criminals")?
"Attorney General William Barr delivered a highly ideological speech to religion broadcasters on Wednesday — characterizing progressivism as 'totalitarian democracy.'" Our AG is a dominionist, rather actively or by sympathy. What he says here (no transcript yet) is dangerous totalitarianism and straight out of the Goebbels playbook. And I'm not saying that with hyperbole. He is ticking off points from the actual, fucking, playbook. And it's not by accident.
Anyone who thought this election wouldn't be a knock-down fight is footing themselves. "Representatives for Barack Obama sent a cease-and-desist letter to a Republican super PAC on Wednesday, demanding that they stop airing an ad that uses the former President's words to imply former Vice President Joe Biden supports 'plantation politics.'" This one is going to be a nasty one. I sure hope we're all ready for it.
"As part of an ongoing effort to increase Trump’s share of the black vote this fall, the president’s reelection campaign unveiled plans on Wednesday to open a series of 'community centers' in empty retail spaces across the U.S. where paid staffers and volunteers will spend the next several months courting black voters with literature, celebrity meet-and-greets and 'woke'-branded attire." Gives new meaning to "retail politics."
"Sanders has argued that whoever gets the most delegates — even if they fall short of the DNC’s threshold — should be crowned the nominee for president. But House and Senate Democrats, for the most part, insist that the party stick with the rules that were rewritten specifically to address complaints of bias against Sanders in 2016." Part of this "confusion" during the primaries and caucuses are exactly because of those rule changes made for Sanders after the 2016 election.
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