A double post today, because I was an idiot and thought I had hit the publish button yesterday.
John Prine, and so it goes.
"If you die at home from the coronavirus, there’s a good chance you won’t be included in the official death toll, because of a discrepancy in New York City’s reporting process… The problem means the city’s official death count is likely far lower than the real toll taken by the virus, according to public health officials." Same in the rural parts of the country (actually in all parts of the country). (Grokked from Xeni Jardin)
"As the US climbed to more than 10,000 coronavirus deaths on Monday state health officials grappled with its disproportionate impact on black Americans. The disparity is especially stark in cities like New Orleans, Chicago and Detroit, where high concentrations of African Americans live."
"A question we've been hearing a lot recently is 'How is the coronavirus pandemic affecting food and agriculture?' The answer is complicated. But this thread provides a small snapshot of what's going on." A tweet thread from the National Farmers Union on supply chains and the problems that occur when parts of those chains break. (Grokked from Xeni Jardin)
"As COVID-19 surges in places throughout the country, Americans are left to wonder, 'When will my state hit its worst point?'" The answer is, right after you think it's all clear and everybody drops their guard. Approximately 10-14 days after that. In reality the hope is somewhere in the next week to 3 weeks. For Ohio they say it will be the 12th. That may be the statewide projection, but I see it somewhere around the 16 to 20th. And note, the peak for your city/town/whatever may be different than your state's peak.
"The NCMI report was made available widely to people authorized to access intelligence community alerts. Following the report’s release, other intelligence community bulletins began circulating through confidential channels across the government around Thanksgiving, the sources said. Those analyses said China’s leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies." Before. Thanksgiving. True, at the time I was also not worried, but then I don't have contacts in the intelligence community that could have shared the information that they were sure the Chinese government was covering up the outbreak. (Grokked from Xeni Jardin)
Do as I say, not as I do. "A mayor in Illinois pleaded with residents last week to follow the state's stay at home order. After officers reported that people were continuing to defy the rules, the mayor said he had directed the city's police department to use its discretion in issuing citations and arrests… Less than 48 hours later, police broke up a gathering at Hiram's Tavern in downtown Alton. Among those in attendance: (the mayor's) wife." Although the assumption is the mayor and his wife have a "traditional" marriage with "conventional" norms. Note this would probably be have a different reaction is the mayor was the woman and her husband had been found in a bar. (Grokked from Kathryn Cramer)
"The number of daily coronavirus deaths rose in Spain for the second day on Wednesday as 757 people died over the past 24 hours, although the pace of the proportional daily increase in the death toll slowed down slightly, the health ministry said."
"A week after unveiling a stunning projection for the number of people who would die from coronavirus in the US -- 100,000 to 240,000 -- White House officials have yet to fully explain how they arrived at those numbers… Some administration officials are now saying the number could be lower than they originally warned -- but it comes as there are continued questions about how the administration got to the high number." Whispers, we'll be lucky is there are fewer than 240,000 deaths (when you count them all). See earlier link about people dining most likely from COVID-19 complications, but because they don't have a diagnosis (not tested, or, and here's something you haven't heard much about, the tests aren't accurate), they aren't counted with the people who have died in a hospital.
"Some flowers can recover with remarkable speed after a major accident, such as being walked upon by humans… Scientists found that species including orchid and sweet pea could re-orient themselves in 10-48 hours after an injury."
"The world may be racked by the coronavirus, but Donald Trump has less earthly concerns on his mind, too, after signing an executive order encouraging the US to mine the moon for minerals… The executive order makes clear that the US doesn’t view space as a 'global commons', opening the way for the mining of the moon without any sort of international treaty." Someone please tell him about all the "seas" on the moon to see if we can get him to gush about beachfront property.
"Rüdiger Bachmann, a German American economist at Notre Dame, argues that the German system, in maintaining the links between employers and employees, allows the economy to recover faster once a crisis is over. In the U.S. system, companies have to invest time and money finding and training workers all over again… (Anke Hassel, an economist at the Hertie School in Berlin) stresses that Kurzarbeit is not necessarily more expensive than the U.S.-style system of mass layoffs." More expensive, more punishing, and less functionality… that's the American Way.
"What are the economic rules of this upside-down world, where opening the economy too soon produces mass death, but shutting it down for too long produces mass suffering?… Over the past few weeks, I’ve asked a version of this question to a dozen economists. What follows is an attempt to distill their thoughts into four rules that should govern our short-term reaction to the health crisis. It is not just a rebuke to the gospel of growth. It is a new playbook for pandemic economics."
"A California appeals court ordered the dismissal of a criminal case Tuesday against a Mexican megachurch leader on charges of child rape and human trafficking on procedural grounds." Competence, it comes down to having competent people in government. And shit like this happens when the people in charge forget how to dot the "i"s and cross the "t"s.
"The Taliban have walked out of landmark talks which were supposed to help pave the path to peace in Afghanistan… A spokesman for the militant group said the first face-to-face discussions with the government had proved 'fruitless'… Talks have broken down over a prisoner swap agreed between the US and Taliban." We promised more than we could deliver because we didn't do the basic work and instead were more focused on the headlines for the news cycle.
"Convicted former drug company CEO Martin Shkreli, known as 'Pharma Bro,' wants to get out of prison so he can help research a treatment for the coronavirus, his lawyer said Tuesday." He's an "investment" guy, not a scientist. You're not Lex Luthar, you're not even the head henchman that gives the main boss good advice. You're the petty crook shaking down the village ice-cream truck that Superman tags on his way to do important business. Fuck you, Shkreli. Rot in jail.
"Jack Dorsey, the founder of Twitter and payment app Square, has said he will donate $1bn (£810m) towards efforts to tackle the coronavirus pandemic… According to Mr Dorsey, the donation represented approximately 28% of his wealth." Something good finally comes from his "leadership." But again, this is a "promise." We'll see if it's more than a publicity "feel good" move.
"President Donald Trump has upended the panel of federal watchdogs overseeing implementation of the $2 trillion coronavirus law, tapping a replacement for the Pentagon official who was supposed to lead the effort." When you rob the bank, you need to blind the cameras. (Grokked from Chuck Wendig)
"President Donald Trump on Tuesday made inaccurate claims about the World Health Organization and delivered more of the false statements that have become a signature trait of his daily coronavirus briefings." His "press briefings" are a campaign tactic (part of the reason his poll numbers are up). And at this point, what makes you believe he wouldn't be lying all the time?
"House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff accused President Donald Trump's top intelligence official Tuesday of undermining 'critical intelligence functions' by keeping Congress in the dark about organizational changes he's been implementing… Schiff emphasized that under Grenell's management, every Senate-appointed official in the DNI's hierarchy had been removed. And Congress, he said, had not been consulted about the intelligence or national security implications of the changes." The president is violating the Constitution, and because the Senate GOP decided to kiss the president's ass instead of holding him accountable, there are no constraints anymore. Also note the emerging story line of "you went to the press before telling me directly" as a rebuttal to any oversight or actual management or accountability.
"The House Intelligence Committee chairman on Tuesday called on U.S. President Donald Trump’s acting spy chief to explain the removals and resignations of top intelligence officials and whether he ever tried to block probes by the intelligence community’s recently fired internal watchdog."
"But instead of putting minds at rest, Trump's wild performance instead put on a display many of the personal and political habits that have defined his tumultuous presidency. It was a troubling spectacle coming at such a wrenching chapter of national life, the kind of moment when Presidents are called to provide consistent, level leadership."
What was supposed to be yesterday's post. Sorry.
"After intense political back and forth, Wisconsin is set to hold its presidential primaries and elections for many state and local offices on Tuesday… The controversial election day comes after the Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned an executive order issued by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers to delay in-person voting until June 9, followed by a U.S. Supreme Court order on Monday evening to cut off an extension for absentee voting." Both Supreme Courts voted along ideology/party lines. Yes, conservatives are trying to screw you over and (if you insist on voting "wrong") steal your right to vote. Almost 10,000 absentee ballots request have not been sent out and that's not counting the ones sent recently that may not arrive in time for those voters to get them postmarked today. Out of the absentee ballots sent out, nearly 400,000 have not been returned yet. "Polling places were consolidated and modified to follow social distancing guidelines, and there's expected to be a shortage of about 7,000 poll workers as many decline to work amid the pandemic."
"Wisconsin has long been scheduled to hold an election on April 7. There are more than 3,800 seats on the ballot, and a crucial state Supreme Court race… Thousands of poll workers have dropped out for fear of contracting the virus… Milwaukee… consolidated its polling locations from 182 to five, while Green Bay consolidated… from 31 to two. Gov. Tony Evers asked the Republican-controlled legislature to postpone the election, but it refused. So he tried to delay it himself in an executive order on Monday. But the Republican-dominated state Supreme Court reinstated the election, thereby forcing voters to choose between protecting their health and exercising their right to vote."
The virus doesn't discriminate… "Black residents accounted for 72% of deaths from COVID-19 complications in (Chicago) and 52% of positive tests for the coronavirus, despite making up only 30% of the city's population, according to the city's public health agency." And while the virus doesn't discriminate, it will exploit existing conditions of poverty and social structures. "'It’s clear that what COVID-19 is doing is exacerbating the racial disparity in health in this country,' said Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who led the Detroit Medical Center before taking office."
"Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care in hospital after his coronavirus symptoms 'worsened', Downing Street has said." So much for "routine tests." And suddenly, the NHS is very important to the conservative government. Funny how that happens.
"The USNS Comfort hospital ship and an emergency hospital at the Javits Center are meant to be relief valves for hospitals in New York City, where more than 14,000 people have been hospitalized for COVID-19. But the facilities have been largely empty, leading officials to try to streamline their operations."
"India has lifted its near-total ban on the export of hydroxychloroquine — a anti-malarial drug touted as a potential coronavirus prevention and cure — after being threatened by President Donald Trump." And the ugly American raises its hoary head once again.
"While Dr. Anthony Fauci has urged caution in using hydroxychloroquine, some doctors are prescribing it to patients who have the virus despite the fact it has never been tested for it." Anecdote is not evidence. "If hydroxychloroquine becomes an accepted treatment, several pharmaceutical companies stand to profit, including shareholders and senior executives with connections to the president. Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine." Boom, there it is.
"In a hastily scheduled news conference with members of his coronavirus task force, Trump repeated a line he has said many times before — 'what do you have to lose?' — when detailing that the federal government has stockpiled 29 million doses of hydroxychloroquine for potential use to treat the virus. He also suggested doctors take the drug before treating coronavirus patients." What do you have to lose? Your health, your life, a shit-ton of money, and the lives and health of those who use hydroxychloroquine to treat their ailments (which has proven efficacy).
The arrogance of smart people, "White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said Monday that he is qualified to disagree with Dr. Anthony Fauci on coronavirus research because 'I’m a social scientist.'" I have no doubt that Navarro is smart, but that doesn't mean he knows shit about what he's talking about. Plus Navarro is long known to be an ass. If you wish to dispute me on this, please point to the peer reviewed studies with controls on the use of hydroxychloroquine treating COVID-19. I know you can't because there are no studies.
"Presidential son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner summed it up when he said last week that it is 'supposed to be our stockpile, it’s not supposed to be states’ stockpiles that they then use.'… The Strategic National Stockpile was amassed for 22 years, and those involved in both the Bush and Obama administrations say its sole purpose is to be deployed to states in a moment like this."
"The United States was preparing on Monday for what one official called the 'peak death week' of the coronavirus, while across the Atlantic British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the most prominent person with COVID-19, was taken to intensive care." There are states where this is just starting. While this week will be bad, for Ohio I don't expect "peak" for another week or two.
"Health officials in Geauga County said they are working with the Amish community to make sure they are aware of the importance of following the state’s stay-at-home order… Several residents in Geauga, Ashtabula and Trumbull counties have contacted the FOX 8 I-team expressing concerns that their Amish neighbors are still gathering for church and parties. A few people sent pictures to the I-Team showing large gatherings of Amish residents on Sunday." When this hits in the Amish community is when it will be very bad for the hospital I work at.
"China reported no coronavirus deaths on Tuesday, the first time since it started publishing daily figures in January… The National Health Commission said it had 32 confirmed cases, down from 39 on Monday… It comes as the government is under scrutiny as to whether it is underreporting its figures."
"Italy and Norway are beginning to look at easing their lockdowns after Denmark and Austria became the first two European countries to loosen restrictions as governments seek to gradually revive economies crippled by the containment measures without risking a second wave of infection." Hold on to your boots, here we go.
"Japan’s consumer spending fell in February but at a slower-than-expected pace as households scrambled for protective masks, toilet paper and staple food amid the worsening coronavirus pandemic."
"Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday announced a 108 trillion yen ($989 billion) relief package — a staggering amount equivalent to about 20% of the annual output of the world's third biggest economy."
When you vote to break the government, you shouldn't be surprised when government is broken. "The electronic system the Small Business Administration is using to set up new coronavirus loans was down much of Monday, according to senior banking executives, making it impossible for many new loans to be guaranteed."
"Bank of America said Monday that it’s seen fierce demand for emergency rescue loans with current applications already accounting for nearly 10% of the entire amount allocated by Congress… The bank confirmed that it has received applications from 177,000 small businesses for a total of $32.6 billion in financing. The current Bank of America numbers are its applications and do not represent the sums the Small Business Administration has approved."
"Easier travel, the world wide web, the end of the Cold War, trade deals, and new, rapidly developing economies, have all combined to create a system that is much more dependent now on what is happening on the other side of the world than it ever was… Which is why the spread of coronavirus, or Covid-19 to be specific, has had such an immediate economic effect." They ask is COVID-19 will reverse "globalization"? Besides the anti-semitic nature of the question (and "anti-globalization" efforts), no, it will not. It will change some procedures and processes, it will streamline some of the supply chains (and probably end sub-subcontracting) but you can't stuff that genie back in the bottle.
"Some jobless Americans will start seeing heftier unemployment checks as soon as this week, depending on where they live… States are beginning to implement the historic enhancement of unemployment benefits that Congress included in its $2.2 trillion relief package to address the coronavirus pandemic savaging the economy. It includes a $600 weekly increase for up to four months, on top of state benefits."
"Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly apologized Monday for criticizing the ousted captain of an aircraft carrier dealing with a coronavirus outbreak. Modly was recorded calling Captain Brett Crozier 'naive' and 'stupid' for his handling of a memo in which he pleaded for help for the ship's crew." He's only apologizing because he didn't expect his words to be made public. Modly, you were caught playing checkers when Capt. Crozier was playing 3D chess. He had your every response planned for when his memo "leaked". And here's another hint, Modly, your foot is still on the mine he laid for you. You've lost the confidence and trust of the people under your command and direction with your tirade. You should have kept your mouth shut. There is no good outcome for you even if the captain's command is restored. It's time for your resignation, Modly.
"Congressional leaders are jolting ahead with another coronavirus rescue package as President Donald Trump indicated that Americans will need more aid during the stark pandemic and economic shutdown."
"Auto insurance companies Allstate and American Family Insurance said they will give policyholders millions of dollars back because Americans are driving less during the coronavirus pandemic… In a statement released Monday, Allstate announced it would return $600 million in premiums to customers. The company said most policyholders will get back 15% of their premium in April and May."
Remember when we were all told not to make this political? "Reporter Robert Costa revealed that Jared Kushner has been coordinating the distribution of medical supplies with Republican donors… The Washington Post national political reporter said President Donald Trump's son-in-law has sparked confusion in those efforts by placing himself in the chain of command, and both Kushner and trade adviser Peter Navarro were contradicting advice from White House medical experts."
An opinion piece about it. "Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner is running a shadow coronavirus response task force. He's doing it off the books, with closed-door meetings and private email accounts. Recently, The Atlantic reported that a company co-founded by Kushner's brother — which used to be partly owned by Jared — developed a government website to direct Americans to coronavirus testing sites at the government's request. The website was created and then, for reasons that remain unclear, never went public."
"In short, Trump loves OAN, as he’s repeatedly said on Twitter – even, on occasion, praising them above his beloved Fox News. 'Look, OAN is a relatively small organization, but you may well know someone who watches them,' said (John) Oliver. 'And they’re punching way above their weight right now.'"
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