There's battle lines being drawn.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong.
Young people speaking their minds
getting so much resistance from behind

Friday, October 2, 2015

Followup to those thousands making a good living

So, that article Barry Eisler pointed me to that I couldn't read at the time I finally got to read. Again, doesn't support his contention of thousands of writers making a good living self-publishing. Plus, half is him pontificating, and the other half if JA Konrath saying, "Yea, what he said, and I said it first."

Is book publishing hard? Yes it is. Is self-publishing easy? Yes it is. Is successful "legacy" publishing hard? Yes it is (see many previous posts on the low advances, low sales, and the three-book death spiral, if you make it to three). Is successful self-publishing hard? It's much harder than the legacy model. In both you pays you buck, you takes your chances.

However, if you get over the hurdle of legacy publishing the chances of your success are slightly higher than in self-publishing where the successful part is much harder (see various posts about having to do it all yourself).

Are their success story in self-publishing? Yes. And most of those end with getting "legacy" publishing contracts (Celestine Prophecy, etc).

So, again, Barry doesn't have proof of what he's talking about with "thousands of self-published authors making a good living", and the equation has stayed basically the same (there was self-publishing before Amazon and the Kindle, it just required more up-front money). And while what Barry and JA say about contracts is true, that's why your agent makes their money (I'll also point out that while Barry says you'll never get your rights back, he did get his rights back).

For me, I'll continue my path with the "legacy" system. I might do self-publishing in the future, creating a hybrid-career (which is actually the best advice at the moment). It's my unlearned opinion that "legacy" publishing still offers the better overall chance.

As always with writing advice, YMMV.

Linkee-poo will tell you my sins so you can sharpen your knife

For Karl, subscription snack services, including Japanese snacks sent to the US. You're welcome.

The Interfaith Calendar for all your holiday shopping needs. (Grokked from Mary Robinette Kowal)

Identifying and encouraging gifted students. I have a lot of thoughts and feelings on this. While I totally applaud actually recognizing gifted students and giving them the stimulation they need, there's side-effects and process issues that cause me great concern. There's a lot of high-school students taking college courses and the vast majority of them are not ready for it (no, really, go ask anyone who has to teach these courses, especially those teaching the "core curriculum" courses, not the major specific course). I've also seen how skewed the Honors Society can be (i.e. rich, white-kid clubs, at least it was at my high school). But as a student who was gifted (yea, yea, but I have the test scores to prove it) I became extremely bored in middle-school (and with the contact with teachers like Mr. Mustard, yes, that was his name) and that affected how I did in college until I became excited again about education (which was almost too late). I was a slacker. Frankly, I didn't have to think to do well. Smart people, IMHO, are the first to, as Stephen King puts it, "ship their oars and drift." That doesn't help build the habits that keep them successful later in life when they finally find something that does challenge them. But then there is how you identify those students. It's been my experience that administrators and educators are the absolute worst at that task. And then there's this, "In a school where most children are in remediation, he argues, a child who is simply performing on grade level may need special attention." What is really needed is to lower class size, increase expectations, eliminate as much as possible the economic disparity between students (that right there would do the most, and it would cost society the most), do "honest" grading, stop stigmatizing students (those who need help to keep up or make even the basic level of achievement, and those who zoom past everyone else), etc. But then we would have to change some basic things in our society, none of which will happen. So until then, it'll only be the kids whose parents can afford it that will excel (with the rare exception, of which I am a part of). The haves will continue to get, and the have-nots will continue to lack basic needs.

Want proof of what I say about how honors programs are mostly a rich whites only club? Okay here's some data. While Asians are a close second (note the stereotype perception of Asians within the white culture), the rest of the "minority" groups are very under represented.

For your edification, a map of the mass shootings since Sandy Hook. (Grokked from Morgan J Locke)

If true, this is hilarious. Person uses raccoon to defeat a breathalyzer interlock system, tosses raccoon on floor forgetting that a car is not a raccoon's natural habitat and that they might get pissed off. (Grokked from Mary Robinette Kowal)

"In what can only be another harbinger of bad news for Sen. Rand Paul’s troubled presidential campaign, one of three pro-Paul super PACs has stopped raising money for the Kentucky Republican, with its leader calling it 'a futile crusade.'" Ouch. You know when a SuperPAC say, "Nah, we don't need your money, we're closing up" something is very, very wrong.

Rand Paul tries to have it both ways. He wants to dis Cruz, but also appeal to his voters.

"The New America Foundation found that twice as many people have died in attacks by right-wing groups in America than by Muslim extremists since 9/11." If only government would have studied this so we could have been safe… oh, wait. (Grokked from Mary Robinette Kowal)

Say, remember when these GOP lead state legislatures were all hot to pass voter ID laws? And they kept saying it wasn't racially motivated? So, why is Alabama now closing all those places where people can get government issued IDs in majority black counties? Yea, it wasn't racism my Aunt Fanny. (Grokked from Justine Larbalestier)

"As Planned Parenthood called on their supporters to rally on Tuesday, a state report found no evidence that a Planned Parenthood clinic in Missouri illegally handled fetal tissue… In addition to Missouri, officials in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Indiana, South Dakota and Massachusetts have found, after investigations, that Planned Parenthood was in compliance with state laws." It's almost like those videos were a heavily edited hit-job that didn't actually show the truth. And I'll add here, they looked very hard to find something. (Grokked from John Scalzi)

Truth will out. "'Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?" (House Majority Leader and Speaker Hopeful Kevin) McCarthy said. 'But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping. Why? Because she's untrustable [sic]. But no one would have known any of that had happened had we not fought and made that happen.'" And now you know why it's been Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi all summer long. It's also why we keep hearing about her email server. It has nothing to do with anything except winning the 2016 Presidential Election. Your tax dollars at work in a GOP lead Congress. It's so rare that a politician will admit to such, but then this new crop of GOP leaders really don't have any skills at all, except their hatred. Which makes them strong.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Linkee-poo got no kick against modern jazz

In case it needs to be said, #StandwithPP.

I'm big in Mexico. That's where Beakman's World still is in reruns. "The show is still beloved in Latin America, where the performance artist who played Beakman tours a stage version of the show to audiences of thousands."

I did a panel once on the use of narcotics and hallucinogens as standard medicine. I was on the "hold your horses, these are dangerous things to play with." In that category is Ketamine, which is used as a anesthesia. It's one of those drugs the late Michael Jackson took. However, it looks to be effective for some people with depression. Note there's a lot of caveats in there, as well as the point that most anti-depressants don't work much better than placebos (this is why, if you do take drugs for depression, you might need to try a number of them, as well as different dosages of them, before finding something that works, note I'm not saying they are just placebos). Although now, just like with botox, thousands of sites are popping up to offer ketamine to patients. Insert standard cautions about fad science here.

Ever want to try your hand at old style computing, but really don't want to haul all those boxes out of the attic (or buy an old computer of dubious operating capability off ebay)? Well, try these emulators that run in your browser. (Grokked from John)

Surprise, turns out concealed carry laws don't decrease crime when you look at all the data. Also, "The study also reports that the presence of gun dealers — not fear of being victimized — most often prompts people to obtain concealed carry permits." Strange how that works. (Grokked from Kameron Hurley)

Humans like to win. But it turns out, we also like to almost win. Trust me, this is old news to the gambling industry. And yes, the games are designed accordingly.

Shell Oil, after years of beating the drum for "We Wanna Drill In the Arctic Sea!" says, "Meh, not so much." They blame a dud of an exploratory drill (one well) and a "challenging and unpredictable federal regulatory environment." Yea. That's why they're going to abandon a project that has cost them $7B. My money is on this being a political feint to try and eliminate regulations and to reduce next years protest flotilla. After all, oil isn't fetching very much these days, and Alaska oil is very expensive to produce. What will really tell the tale is if Shell tries to sell their leases, or allows them to lapse.

Of course, this is bad news for Alaska which lives in fear of the day they need to start an income tax. So, expect the next big Keystone XL type fight over ANWR (again). Remember, Exxon drilled several test wells in what became ANWR, and chose Prudhoe Bay instead.

In other oil news, Exxon Mobil was pretty spot on with their global warming predictions back in 1981. From documents leaked to the press, there's a chart showing that with the CO2 release from fossil fuels, your temperature gradient kinda goes up, almost like a hockey stick. Also note that in 1981 Exxon scientists had already detected global temperatures had shifted out of the natural variation pattern. (Grokked from Seanan McGuire)

"The most popular political entity in the new NBC/WSJ poll is… Planned Parenthood (like it was in July)" Why, because they do good work and touch the lives of a lot of people. Although, you'll see that 31% hold a negative view. Gee, what could that 31% represent? (that's rhetorical) (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)

The continuing problem of the echo chamber. The right has a problem in that it only listens to its own farts and thinks it's wisdom. First it's Carly Fiorina not understanding the videos she's watching, and now it's Chairman Chaffetz who doesn't remember where he gets his data. I would say they should be ashamed, but they have none.

John Oliver on framing and the refuge crisis in Europe. Or how Fox News lies to you and how to treat a refuge crisis. (Grokked from Jim Wright)

Even the Senate GOP is tired of Ted Cruz being a dick. That's sort of what happens when you decide to berate your comrades. Eventually they tire of the antics and just wish you'd go away. Ted Cruz is the anti-team player. (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)

As predicted, Trump tells Fox News, "I just can't quit you."

The mugs game of simplifying the tax code by reducing the brackets.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Your Million Dollar Idea

Weather-proof pet doors with a camera and wifi connection so you can remotely unlock/open or lock/close the door. Better yet, a camera with pet recognition software. This way you only let in your pet, not the neighbor's kitties, not the raccoons or squirrels. Should have the ability to recognize at least 10 different animals for approval. Maybe also have software that can tell you if your pet is in or out.

As far as I know there are ones that can respond to a micro-chip that you can place on a collar, but not a door that can allow you to say, deny going out because it's too cold. Or if your pet is near the door and another animal tries to get through, you'd want to stop that.

So far I see hobbyist stuff, but nothing really commercially available.

Linkee-poo, but tomorrow may rain, so I'll follow the sun

Being respectful of the Native American culture and stories. (Grokked from someone, sorry)

"A 4-year-old was allegedly forced by his teacher to write with his right hand, even though he’s left-handed… According to KFOR, the child was sent home with a letter about how left-handedness is often associated with evil and the devil." Oh Great C'thulhu take me now. Before you comment, yes, I know "sinister" means "left handed". I am left handed. I had to deal with this crap when I was a kid. Fuck the religious liberty arguments, forcing a child who is left handed to be right handed has been shown to have dire psychological effects. (Grokked from Jim Wright)

No, seriously, it's time this country had a sit-down discussion. It didn't happen when doctors refused to save their patients' lives when they required an abortion. It didn't happen when pharmacists refused to dispense birth control (Plan B, daily pills, and condoms). It didn't happen when that teacher burned crosses into kids' forearms. It didn't happen as the Religious Right banned Playboy from store shelves because they were offended by seeing it(actually it was because of the temptation, if they had fought on the objectification of women I might have supported it), and now there is this fight with Kim Davis and then this shit (not to mention giving public funds to sectarian schools and some of the heinous fuckery that goes on there). Your religious rights stop at the end of your body. You can believe whatever you want, really. Even to dancing with poisonous snakes if you want. But you don't get to impose your religious values on others. If your religious freedoms threaten the life of someone below the age of majority, we're going to impose societal norms to save their life. If you're a professional, do the gorram job already.

How the world would look if everybody was an asshole. (Grokked from John Scalzi)

Hey, you know how security people kept on saying how biometrics would be the ultimate security feature? Yea, still vulnerable to hacking. (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)

"With a slightly different setup, a thermal gain of 2 is reached, thus clearly above break-even for all neutronicity values possible." Or, in other words, fusion reaction. Also, this is how we'll learn about it. Not from an evening news report, but through a boring scientific paper published in a journal. In this case using lasers to induce a fusion reaction in ultra-dense deuterium. It's not much, it's under very controlled conditions, it's indirectly observed, and it's not been replicated in other labs yet. But this is how it starts. (Grokked from Karl Schroeder)

A new book on the history of DARPA. It's the ever present question of how far should science go, and just because we can shouldn't mean that we do. Then there's the opposite Cold War mentality of "if we don't the other side will."

"According to a source briefed by US officials about Friday's announcement, the new cap-and-trade program will cover 'the lion's share of China's emissions.'" Another domino falls. Well, at least President Obama's leadership helps convince other countries to do what's right, even if it has little effect on our Congress. (Grokked from Dan)

John Scalzi on the John Boehner stepping down. John Boehner was a politician, I don't agree with many of his positions, but at least he knew how work should get done. He just thought he would be able to harness the energy of the tea party and channel it, not understanding those new congressmen had no intension of getting in line. He was also hampered by having one of the best deal making levers being no longer available (ear marks). However in both of his terms as speaker (the gavel passed from him to Pelosi and then back to him) the Congress was known for it's "do nothing" functioning. The record run of CRs started in his tenure, and it continued into his second term. But we all know that whomever comes next is going to be worse. Even if a moderate is able to get the votes, the lunatic wing of the party feels they won a victory in forcing Boehner out. They're now emboldened and will fight even harder. It's the fruition of the Ronald Reagan compromise (of bringing the social conservatives into the voting pool and for the GOP).

Friday, September 25, 2015

Linkee-poo, that's the difference between whiskey and you

So, Speaker Boehner shouts "I am hurt. A plague o' both your houses! I am sped. Is he gone, and hath nothing?" and exits stage left. Speaker Boehner was probably the last guy in the GOP house who could actually do that job (since Cantor got the boot in the primary). He looked level-headed, moderate, and capable, but remember that he was contrasted with people who make the Three Stooges look reasonable in comparison. By all accounts, however, he was a skilled politician. I think he truly believed that he could control the wave that brought him into power because new congressmen tended to look to old congressmen for mentorship. He didn't realize his looney-fringe of the party had no interest in compromise, politics as usual, or competency (that last one is the real kicker). They couldn't be reasoned with because being unreasonable was what got them elected and kept them in office.

More on that Authors Guild survey quoted in the NPR story with the Barry Eisler quote that got some action here. Kameron Hurley on the cold, hard truth about units sold per book (and other things in the publishing industry). Yes, that (pointed to by the other two people here). I'll note it was when I actually realized these numbers that I had the first thought, "Hell, I could write a book that could sell that many." Also Chuck Wendig and John Scalzi.

It's decorative gourd season, motherfuckers! McSweeneys with a holiday classic (NSFW if people can read your screen, or you read with your lips. (Grokked from Julie)

"The ongoing war in Syria has led researchers to make the first withdrawal of seeds from a 'doomsday' vault in an Arctic mountainside, to protect global food supplies." Don't worry, it's just because the seed vault in Syria was damaged. They're replacing stock. Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Rut Rho, the FBI has recovered those emails on Hillary Clinton's email server. Things are about to get real (boring). Wake me when they find the email telling us where Hoffa is buried.

The Trumpster swears off Fox News. Next week's Trump quote, "Oh, Fox, I can't quit you."

Stephen Colbert punches his geek card with this take on the 2016 Election/Hunger Games. (Grokked from TPM)

Ted Cruz disagrees with the Pope on the death penalty, saying that it helps protect the sanctity of life because he's seen the worst of us. "'I spent a number of years in law enforcement dealing with some of the worst criminals, child rapists and murderers, people who’ve committed unspeakable acts,' Cruz (said)." The problem, Teddy, is that child sexual abuse isn't a death penalty crime.

"There are, it turns out, people in the corporate world who will do whatever it takes, including fraud that kills people, in order to make a buck. And we need effective regulation to police that kind of bad behavior, not least so that ethical businesspeople aren’t at a disadvantage when competing with less scrupulous types. But we knew that, right?" Paul Krugman on heinous fuckery. (Grokked from Morgan J Locke)

"A white Florida Republican suggested knocking a black, longtime Democratic congresswoman out of her seat by gerrymandering more prisoners into her district, according to audio obtained by Politico and published on Wednesday." Part of the Southern Strategy laid bare. I'm sure racism has nothing to do with it, and it's merely a GOP/Democratic Party issue. But we won't know because after trying to say she was just repeating what had been said in a meeting, she's now saying because it involves a pending court case she won't talk about it anymore (which, if she was a litigant, would be valid, but is bs when you're not involved directly in the case).

"A Pennsylvania lawmaker objected to accusations that he had invited a white supremacist to testify in front of a committee by clarifying that the witness was merely a white nationalist." There aren't enough faces and palms to handle a statement like that.

"'Our message is one of hope and aspiration,' (Jeb! Bush) said, according to the Washington Post. 'It isn't one of division and get in line and we'll take care of you with free stuff. Our message is one that is uplifting -- that says you can achieve earned success.'" Oh look, it's the 47% again. From the same article, and to catch up with The Jeb!, "'We're pluralistic,' Bush said on Thursday. 'We're not multicultural. We have a set of shared values that defines our national identity. And we should never veer away from that.'" I don't think he understands the words he's using.

Tweet of my heart: @downwithtyranny Want to know what the Republican health care plan for America really is? Martin Shkreli is the personification of it

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Linkee-poo ain't over until it's over

The Hidden Brain podcast with Shankar Vedantam. On our society and how we actually act, instead of how we wish we acted (you may know Shankar Vedantam from reporting about economics/sociology research on NPR).

Say, you know how we're all crawling with bacteria, viruses, amoeba and all the other little things (you're itching right now, aren't you). Well, it turns out we also have our personal cloud of microbes around us. "Our results confirm that an occupied space is microbially distinct from an unoccupied one, and and demonstrate for the first time that individuals release their own personalized microbial cloud." Yea, so no more blaming it on the dog, eh. And the researchers found it's almost like a fingerprint (note, for various values and validity of fingerprint analysis). The world is weirder than you think. So the next time someone gets all up in your grill, tell them to back off or you'll release your noxious cloud… of bacteria. Also, if you remember in Star Trek where they investigate crimes looking to find DNA evidence to link to someone, you don't even have to go that far. Just sniff the cloud left behind. (Grokked from Dan)

"NASA-supported researchers have found that ice covering Greenland is melting faster than previously thought. The action is happening out of sight, below the surface." We're boned.

Happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday you rascal you, happy birthday to you. Judge rules lyrics of Happy Birthday are in the public domain. (Grokked from Dan)

Ever wonder why learning history is important? It's so you don't make an ass of yourself. A TV station uses stock art of the yellow star Nazis forced Jews to wear to tell all their jewish viewers, "Hey, happy Yom Kippur." Plus, um, I don't think you understand the importance of the closing of the gates of heaven.

"'The right-wing Marxist [sic] have teamed up with Pelosi. They’re the ones who always team up with Pelosi. They are the Pelosi Republicans,' Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), a Boehner ally, told The Hill." Note that this group that is planning for the shutdown are always described as "hard-right." Communists to the left of me, communists to the right, stuck in the middle with Boehner. Dear Rep. Nunes, really, dude, take a history lesson already. Those words you're using, they have meanings.

"On the other hand, human beings have built a 2,000-mile-long frontier wall exactly one time. Once. And it was accomplished only through a centuries-long building campaign that necessitated the forced labor of millions of Chinese peasants." About that wall that the Trumpster (and much of the GOP) would want built with some hard numbers. That's a hellalotta concrete. (Grokked from Dan)

"Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush today pledged to 'repeal or reform the most onerous Obama rules and regulations,' and net neutrality would be one of the first things on his chopping block." Hey, remember when his brother came into office the the slam-dunk anti-trust lawsuit against Microsoft kinda just fell into pieces? Again, remind me of who they're supposed to be working for, 'cause that joke just never gets old. (Grokked from John)

"Fox News was found in breach of British broadcast code that says, 'Factual programmes or items or portrayals of factual matters must not materially mislead the audience.'" Uh, oh Lucy, you got some 'splainin' to do. See, other countries still have laws on their books that require programs that say they're news to actually report news instead of speculation and rumor.

Tweet of my heart: @AcademicsSay Behind every uncomfortable syllabus clause lies an even more uncomfortable teaching experience.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Linkee-poo, tell me what can I do, baby is in black, and I'm feeling blue

Neil Gaiman, Margaret Atwood and others discuss Orpheus in the Underworld. Yes! Also of note that's the working title of the 3rd act of the WIP. Also the start of the "never look back" meme. A radio interview on BBC4 with links to articles. Listen to it while you can. Also, much musings on the meaning and purpose of the artist, the journey of the shaman (although they don't call it that), and the reinterpretation of the myth through the ages. Also why I totally dug a part of a book by a friend that unfortunately was cut before publication, it was like this. So totally want to get the audio of this to listen many, many times in the years to come. MORE LIKE THIS, PLEASE.

We're just going to leave this here. The Banksy Coke Ad, or, "People are fucking with you." As he says, "They are The Advertisers and they are laughing at you."

If you've gone to some SF/F cons and wondered into the vendors' room, you've probably met Larry Smith. He's the one with the fantastic books. Apparently after attending a con he and his wife rolled their van. There's a GoFundMe page to help they get back on their feet.

The Medieval Technical Support/Help Desk video. I think this is fairly old, and I believe I linked to it before (but I also think that was a pirate copy and it got taken down). This one is from the broadcaster. Books. Whatcha gonna do. (Grokked from John)

Where 35 of your favorite fast food restaurants got their start. (Grokked from Dan)

Remember when I mentioned that suing Rolling Stone, the reporter, and the alleged victim of serial rape was a Bad Idea™? "The Department of Education found that the University of Virginia mishandled complaints of sexual violence…" Also, "The DOE also cited a 'hostile environment for the affected students' at the university, according to the release." But that investigation started before the article was published. I can't wait to see what happens to the fraternity in court. While I don't have any data, I'm guessing it won't be a good day for them when they try to prove their reputation had been damaged and the defendant's council starts introducing countervailing evidence.

Heinous fuckery. "A former hedge fund manager turned pharmaceutical businessman has purchased the rights to a 62-year-old drug used for treating life-threatening parasitic infections and raised the price overnight from $13.50 per tablet to $750." And then complains that he doesn't understand what all the fuss is. Maybe not first against the wall when the revolution comes, but in the first week. (Although I've heard a report he's returned the patent to the previous non-profit owner, guess he didn't think anyone would be upset). (Grokked from Kameron Hurley)

Content providers fight back against ad blockers. It's an arms race (I expect ad blockers will come up with some sort of selective blocking technology). (Grokked from Dan)

There's this meme about how the Moon's gravitational pull doesn't affect the Earth (actually, it does), but now we can see in more detail how the Earth affects the Moon. The Earth is deforming the Moon, evidenced by fractures in the crust. Also, you know, tidal-locked and all (also, the Earth is increasing the orbital velocity of the Moon which is moving it into a higher orbit, and the Moon is slowing the Earth's rotational speed). (Grokked from John Scalzi)

Okay, so, some atoms can be induced into a state where they can't "tunnel." Wow. Quantum "Weeping Angels" (and yes, the article does make that comparison). Okay, fairly geeky, and I think the article broke my brain, but kewl! (Grokked from Dan)

Kim Davis speaks. That, right there, is what we call a violation of your oath of office and abdication of fiduciary responsibility. Except for the "so help me", I don't remember God in any of my (multiple) oaths of office. She has the right to believe as she does, but if that interferes with her responsibility of being Clerk, then she needs to make a choice, uphold your oath to serve or follow your God and resign your office.

Strangely enough, your viewpoint on if America has enough opportunity and equality for all depends on your race. Who knew?

The Huckleberries believes Obama is the most anti-Christian president evar. Nobody tell him about Jefferson's Qur'an. His head might explode.

Ben Carson was dis-invited from speaking at a Southern Baptist conference because of his religion (Seventh Day Adventist). Irony.

Tweet of my heart: @TeaPartyCat BREAKING: Koch brothers petition Supreme Court to reverse Citizens United “before we squander all our money on losers like Scott Walker.” (hat tip to Dan who pointed it out)

Monday, September 21, 2015

Those Thousands of Self-Published Authors Making a Good Living

To everyone else, Barry Eisler made a driveby comment (I doubt he's a regular reader) challenging me on my statement about his claim of "'I mean, there are lots of writers ... thousands of writers who are making a good living from self-publishing,'" in the previous linkee-poo. I haven't contacted him directly, yet, so I don't have his permission to post his comment on the top of this blog. You can read it here. Since my response to him is rather long, I've decided to make it a post of it's own.

Hey Barry,

Well, first my name is Steve. You don't even need to google for that, it's on the top of the right-hand column. It's right there.

So, okay, lets look at the articles you point to. Just as a reminder, my questions are about your contention, "'I mean, there are lots of writers ... thousands of writers who are making a good living from self-publishing.'" While it would help to define what "a good living" means, let's see what the articles you point to actually say.

First is the Atlantic Story, Authors of Kindle Singles Are Raking in Tens of Thousands of Dollars. The only quote I could find there for your statement was "A new report from PaidContent finds that… a few authors are doing quite well from their Kindle Single effort… PaidContent estimates that (Mishka) Shubaly has made about $130,000 from his three Singles. The other four writers in PaidContent's report have brought in amounts ranging from a bit less than $9,000 to $65,000. The Singles in PaidContent's round-up all sell for either $0.99 or $1.99 a pop, and authors see 70 percent of the revenue." Okay, well there are five, although the "bit less than $9,000" would qualify for "poverty" for a single person (as referenced in the original NPR story). So that article doesn't confirm your contention.

The Passive Voice's blog post KDP was my one shot at a lifelong dream we have an extensive reprint of Jeff Bezos' annual letter to shareholders (we'll pass by the obvious critiques of both "self-reporting" and "conflict of interest" here, as well as the fact that Amazon hasn't released the numbers as a legal disclosure). We have the personal stories of five Kindle Authors, all of whom are listed as Kindle Best Sellers, however not all talk about their income from those sales (who knows what it could be). Then Mr. Bezos' says "more than a thousand KDP authors now each sell more than a thousand copies a month, some have already reached hundreds of thousands of sales, and two have already joined the Kindle Million Club." Sounds good, except, again, no actual royalty statements included. All we can take away is that there are "thousands" of Kindle Direct authors (only one half of your contention) and that "some" are over 100,000 books sold. Mr. Bezos then goes on to say "A typical selling price for a KDP book is a reader-friendly $2.99", not the average, not the mean, but "typical", which means nothing statistically. So while this shows that there are plenty of Kindle Authors, there's nothing about how many of them are "making a good living." So this article is not only unverifiable nor does it have the imprimatur of an actual (verifiable) report it also doesn't prove your contention.

Next up is Digital Book World breakdown of Amazon's 2012 4th QTR revenue (the Christmas season) Amazon Fourth-Quarter Sales up 22% to $21.27 Billion. Here, at least, we have a quote from Mr. Bezos that "After 5 years, ebooks is a multi-billion dollar category for us and growing fast…." So, that sounds pretty good. However, the closest actual numbers reported comes in as, "Amazon media sales worldwide (including ebooks, books, DVDs, CDs, music and more) grew in 2012 to $19.94 billion." Down in the weeds of the actual earning report we see that "Amazon’s digital media selection has grown to over 23 million movies, TV shows, songs, magazines, books, audiobooks, and popular apps and games in 2012…" So for 23M titles, $20B isn't bad. But, again, no breakdown into actual e-books, profits, royalties, etc. But then we get to "Amazon announced that 23 KDP authors each sold over 250,000 copies of their books in 2012, and that over 500 KDP Select books have reached the top 100 Kindle best seller lists around the world." Well, the second half of that statement is meaningless, but the first part with 23 authors selling over 250,000 copies, that pretty good. But, alas, again no actual numbers on how much they made in royalties, and that's only 23 authors. So, again, doesn't prove your contention.

Next is another blog post from The Passive Voice, again they're quoting a press release from Amazon in their Over 150 KDP Authors Each Sold More than 100,000 Thousand Books in 2013. That title is a little poorly worded, but the relevant bullet point here is, "150 Kindle Direct Publishing authors each sold more than 100,000 copies of their books in 2013…" So, that's 150 authors, and again while they're "selling" books, no word on how much they made, and still no hint as to the average price of those books. But wait, "Kindle Direct Publishing authors sold hundreds of thousands of books in November through the new Kindle Countdown Deals…" wow. But how many authors, and how many each did they sell, and at what price? Still no word. So best scenario, 150 authors, but no indication how they're doing. This article doesn't prove your contention.

The next article is on Forbes (hey, okay, a news site), Amazon Pays $450,000 A Year To This Self-Published Writer. That sounds impressive, for this writer, Mark Dawson. And hey, he's got what appears to be a decent series that has "sold 300,000 copies" of his series. However, "sold" isn't what it appears to be because "… Dawson had sold 50,000 copies of The Black Mile over the course of a weekend… But (he) made no money whatsoever from The Black Mile" because "He gave The Black Mile away for free. Amazon recommends this as a promotional tool, and it’s one that many try." There's no word on how many other books he "sold" for free, but if he made $450,000 on 250,000 other books (remember 50K were free), I'm assuming he charged for the rest. While that's great for Mr. Dawson, and I'll grant you that $450k a year is a "good living", again it's one author. So this article also doesn't support your contention of thousands making a "good living."

Then there is the Hugh Howey's Author Earnings Report September 2015 Author Earnings Report. And in there, things look pretty rosy for "indie, non-ISBN publishers" (most likely self-published). Both their market share, and the percentage of revenue they make have increased significantly until Mr. Howey states that the market has inversed (well, not really, traditional publishing for the big and small houses still takes the majority). "Today, indie self-publishers are taking home 24% of the gross $ publisher revenue coming out of the Amazon ebook store. Amazon-imprints and their authors are taking home another 13%. The AAP’s 1200 publishers account for no more than 50% of publisher ebook dollar revenue." Note those don't add up to 100%. But still, that's pretty nice. And their new model of pay per page has some nice numbers, "Today, 34% of indie author earnings from the Amazon store — over a third of indie Kindle revenue — takes the form of KU payments for pages read: in July, KU accounted for 2 billion pages (KENP) and $11.5 million dollars in direct author compensation." Not bad. But, again, no data on how many authors and titles are being compared (only market segments). While there may be more money being taken home by self-published e-books, is that being shared by the same number of authors that make up the other segments (there's no data, but my wild-assed guess would be there are multiplication factors of more self-published than traditional published, so their pie share may be growing, the number of people eating that pie is outstripping the growth, but, again, that's my impression from the growing ranks of self-published authors that are referred to in the other articles). Also, there's no data on whom is getting what. So there is no way, with this article, to confirm your claim of "thousands… making a good living."

General notes, not all articles differentiated between self-published and traditional published e-books (except for the Author Earnings Report). Also, not all self-published books are e-books. There's six other notes I had, but it's late, and I'm tired, and you aren't compensating me for this research.

So, I've read all the articles you've pointed to, Barry. Most of which have troubles with sourcing, but none of which support your contention. At best, there are thousands of self-published authors out there. Given. If we add all the numbers up from the different articles over different years we get less than 500 self-published (well, actually e-book authors selling on Amazon which include traditional published authors as well) authors who are "best-sellers." Amazon considered books sold for $0 a sale. Conclude what you will. There are less than a handful who can be considered "making a good living" (again, from the articles you yourself pointed to).

Again, Barry, as I posted in my commentary on the linkee-poo, "I now want a list of those 'thousands of authors' that make a living form (SIC) self-publishing." You haven't provided. Not even close.

Also, you state that you couldn't find any evidence to support my contention that you overstated your numbers. That's a nice try, Barry. One, logic fallacy here in that you're the one making the extraordinary claim, you're the one that needs to prove your statement. I don't need to prove that I think you're shoveling BS here, as that's my opinion. Also, can't prove a negative, Barry, basic argumentative theory. You get no points for that cheap shot (and I'm going to take it as a cheap shot instead of thinking you were insulting my intelligence).

Barry, I know you're supportive of new authors. And for that, thank you. But you don't have the research to back up your position of "thousands of writers… making a good living from self-publishing." I know for you, self-publishing has been a fantastic boon, and good on you. However I'll note you had a following before going that route. Most authors who have done well self-publishing also have that first step up (having a following from "traditional" publishing) or write erotica (I know, I've done the research). Both sides of that require a hellalotta work from the author (either in promotions, or the number of titles published) to make a living. Very, very few have made a good living (for various values of "good") solely on self-publishing. Many have had "success", but that doesn't equate to making a good living (even with "traditional" publishing), which I know you also acknowledge.

Yes, Barry, I know who you are. For being an advocate for "publishing options," a lot of reporters get that wrong and call you an evangelist for self-publishing. Strange how that happens, every single time. There might be a reason for that.

If you wish to point out any discrepancies or facts I may have missed in the articles you linked to, please do. Note, I am asking your permission to post content from any such commentary to the top of the blog as a regular post.

I've noted how you haven't proven your point. I'm calling bullshit on your thousands of self-published authors making a good living. Since you haven't defined it, I will. A "Good Living" means writing income from self-publishing that's above poverty level for the circumstances the author has (single, married, married with children). No including income from other writing sources (such as commercial writing/freelance sources). I want to see that someone can support themselves without help (including the ever famous "spouse with a real job with real benefits"). That's my definition. Ball is in your court now.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Linkee-poo is he, as you are he, and you are me, and we are all together

Short one, but don't want to go into next week with a backlog, and about to go do work I tried hard not to do.

Book selling success. The numbers are surprisingly low (including the payout). With he obligatory salute to self-publishing and the subsequent overstatement of their numbers (really, Barry Eisler, I now want a list of those "thousands of authors" that make a living form self-publishing). Also a nod to the "three and out" rule.

The FBI considered retweeting as endorsement. To be fair, most of mine are, but sometimes I do it from the point of, "can you believe this shit?". (grokked from Xeni Jardin)

The so-called war on police. Yea, not really. I love how there are police chiefs and politicians who state, "I've never seen relations so hostile…" What a load of BS. Let me channel the 70s here, "Listen, pig…"

"In the wee hours of the morning on Sunday, the mighty state of Texas was asleep… Out in the desolate flats of West Texas, the same wind was turning hundreds of wind turbines, producing tons of electricity at a time when comparatively little supply was needed… And then a very strange thing happened: The so-called spot price of electricity in Texas fell toward zero, hit zero, and then went negative for several hours." Wind power, it works (well that and come select strangeness in the Texas grid and power auction system, plus tax breaks). (Grokked from John Scalzi)

It's always amazing to me that for a party that so embraces the Constitution, they really don't understand the basic parts of that document, nor why it was drafted that way. In this case, Dr. Ben Carson says that being a Muslim would be inconsistent with being President of the United States because it wouldn't be consistent with the Constitution. Showing in one thought that you can love this country, and be against it's founding principles and be a smart person but also be incredibly ignorant. (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)

Friday, September 18, 2015

Linkee-poo, take my hand, we're off to Never-never Land

I've noticed lately that my reserves of piss and vinegar have been topped off. I apologize for my crude words, but sometimes you have to use them.

"The earnings of more than half of American authors fell below the US federal poverty level last year, according to a survey from the Authors Guild." Keep the day job. Next up, water is wet. the ocean is filled with the tears of authors. "The biggest decline in income over the period was for traditionally published trade authors, at 28%;" but wait for it… "earnings for self-published authors were down 25%." (Grokked from Justine Larbalestier)

The Slactivist blogroll. I'm name checked (or at least my blog is, thanks man), but there's a lot of interesting places to go there.

"Students are paying higher tuition than ever. Why can’t more of that revenue go to the people teaching them?" A great article covering more than our universities' moral failures of increasing the ranks of adjunct faculty, for which they barely pay minimum wage (if it even rises that far), but covering a lot of the crimes against the American Worker, all to benefit a few. But the majority is about just what it means to be an adjunct. Speaking from personal experience, they aren't focusing on the negative, this is exactly what it's like. (Grokked from Sheila)

The Red Cross attempted to shut down GOA investigation, instead winds up with a law for more stringent oversight. "Rep. Bennie Thompson… says, he received a letter from (Red Cross CEO) McGovern. She wrote to Thompson, ranking member of the House Committee on Homeland Security, and asked him to 'end the GAO inquiry,' according to a copy of the letter obtained by NPR and ProPublica. McGovern gave the congressman her private cellphone number and asked that he not communicate with her in writing." Good on you, Rep. Thompson. Good on you.

CSS can kill. Hahahahahaha. Every web developer I know can relate to that (graphic showing airline seats outside of airline fuselage). (Grokked from Ferrett Steinmetz)

It isn't just Red Green who loves duct tape. Or, who knew Red Green was practicing for a space mission? (Grokked from the Slactivist)

"After a hospital in rural Kansas announced last week that it will have to close, Republicans in Kansas may reconsider expanding Medicaid in the state." Strange what happens when shit gets real. Of course, it helps that the Senate VP is from Independence, where the hospital closed. Dear Sen. Jeff King, too late.

About those fantasy sports game sites… Actually was wondering this the other day, how much is "skill" and how much is "chance" in these "daily games." For me, it's mostly because the ads are so annoyingly "Bubba-masculine" fantasy trolling, and it's mostly targeted at kids who don't really understand how the world makes money off them. For the politicians, they see a new source of revenue. Because if there's anything worse, it's the greed of politicians who see a good opportunity to rake in money off the rubes, while giving the 1% more tax "relief".

So, how much can religious pastors make before we can start calling them the money changers in the temple? Apparently it's a hellalotta money. (Grokked for the Slactivist)

"In 2012, nearly three-quarters of Asian-American voters went for President Obama. But… 20 years prior… fewer than a third voted Democrat." While a lot of ink and air-time has been devoted to the Hispanic-American vote, the GOP has been losing minorities on all sides.

And the punking begins. In this case, a Jimmy Kimmel fan punks Donald Trump's fan and speaches. (Grokked from Dan)

"But Trump's supporters aren't with him because they want to hear the wonky details. They want someone to channel what they feel… And, right now, no one's doing that better than Donald Trump." So, if you want a clear insight into the soul of the GOP right at the moment, there's the spokesman.

And then there is the phenomenon that white nationalist groups find what the Trump is saying is quite aligned with their own position. While that doesn't make the (s)Trumpet a racist (not openly at least), but what he stands for matches to those who are openly racist.

An you know it's bad when Anderson Cooper loses his cool. This over the blatant (and poorly executed) attempt to spin Donald Trump's not countering a man who claimed President Obama is a muslim and not an American citizen. The real truth, the Trumpster doesn't really listen to anyone who isn't making him money or blowing sunshine up his ass. Seriously, it's like no one else has experienced an asshole, narcissistic CEO before. Also LOVE the "'You may laugh it off, but there are potential reports of Muslim radicals,' Dean said…" Potential reports! We're writing them right now! Also, remarking that he didn't spend "much time visiting "the Muslim world, because I don’t want to get killed," should be the next "Hope I don't get AIDS, just kidding, I'm white."

Why can't the people who actually did watch the Planned Parenthood video find the scene Carly Fiorina described. Because like most of the rest of the scandal (and a lot of what the believe), it's only in their little heads.

If my police chief wrote a post like yours, he wouldn't have even made it to the Council Meeting. Don't let the door hit you in the ass, fucktard.

Tweet of my heart: @POTUS Cool clock, Ahmed. Want to bring it to the White House? We should inspire more kids like you to like science. It's what makes America great.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Linkee-poo, IT WAS A FARGIN CLOCK

Sorry, had to get that out.

Eighteen authors share their daily routine (or lack there of). (grokked from Rae Carson)

Nichelle Nichols goes (pretty close) to space. And people wonder why I love NASA. (Grokked from Rae Carson)

Also, another moon with a global ocean beneath its icy surface. (Grokked from Dan)

When hunting goes wrong. A great horned owl ends up in a liquid manure pit and is fortunately rescued. (Grokked from John Scalzi)

"'We have no information that he claimed it was a bomb,' (police spokesman) McLellan said. 'He kept maintaining it was a clock, but there was no broader explanation.'" That's because he made a clock. He made a Clock. HE MADE A FUCKING CLOCK you moron. But because his name is Ahmed Mohamed, instead of "Hey, that's pretty damn cool," he was arrested, put in cuffs, led from school to juvenile detention, finger-printed, and suspended for 3 days. Do you want to know why some claim that the actions of America in the world is driving people to the extremist? This right here is an example. And you know what, this kid is smart. This kid is industrious (when was the last time any 9th grader you know made something). This kid has everything the extremists are looking for. And the actions of these Islamophobic fucks just told this kid, "We don't trust you because you don't belong." Great work, Sparky. (Grokked from Saladin Ahmed)

The industry that generates this fear. (Grokked from Jim Wright)

I usually put this kind of story father up the chain, but I think it should go here today. "Lt. Col Merryl Tengesdal, a Bronx native, has become the first African-American female to ever pilot the U-2…" (Grokked from Steven Gould)

What happens when the lunatics drink the Kool-Aid. Here is the thing, though. The last Presidential election saw this struggle between establishment and "grass-root" conservatives and the grass-roots buckled under and nominated an "establishment" candidate for electability. Unfortunately they mis-read the electorate and believed their own press and lost. After the election they did an post-mortem and came up with good ideas on how to win elections. And then 2014 saw the "grass-roots" sweep the elections and those plans were shelved. And now we're seeing the same fight. Only this time they may actually nominate a "true conservative" (read: angry white man). This is called "eating your own." (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)

Tweet of my heart: @fordm "They don't build ships like this anymore," says Donald Trump on the battleship USS Iowa, which became obsolete thanks to aircraft carriers.