John Oliver's Last Week Tonight on the Coronavirus. It's from March 16th, but still relevant. Also pointed out to how comedy works well. The show does not have an audience, and they didn't add a laugh track. John Oliver is a well tuned comedian. Playing to a camera without an audience is a tough gig (I don't know if there anyone else than a single camera operator in the room). The timing, the landing, the energy he's giving to the performance is very instructive for those who study comedy. Also useful for writers and other storytellers.
"In general, the U.S. experience largely mimics China’s, with the risk for serious disease and death from Covid-19 rising with age. But in an important qualification, an analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Wednesday underlines a message that infectious disease experts have been emphasizing: Millennials are not invincible. The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit." It's likely most of us will contract SARS-CoV2, there is nothing to stop it from happening. Social distancing is meant to break the chain of transmission, but the result we expect is mostly to slow the rate of infection to a "manageable" level. To give you a metric, our worst fear is we will have more infections needing the most intense treatment at a rate that would outstrip our ability to provide (ICU beds and ventilators or breathing assistance). We have not reached capacity yet (although NY is getting close). That should let you know where we are in the life of this disease (if you need more of a hint, we're not at the midway point yet).
But like I said, NY is getting close. "New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Tuesday that the number of COVID-19 cases in the state has not slowed despite a statewide stay-at-home order. According to the governor, the rate of cases is now doubling about every three days… 'We haven't flattened the curve, and the curve is actually increasing,' Cuomo said." And while we talk about the need for beds and equipment, we haven't started the conversation about needing the nurses and doctors to run them (although my hospital is now doing "skills assessments" to know who can do what and they've already called up the Physical Therapy people to help with Respiratory Care because they have some training there). And in case you're wondering about the rush, "'We're looking at an apex of 14 days, if we don't have the ventilators in 14 days it does us no good,' (Cuomo) said." So in 14 days NY expects to hit their peak. If the president, right now, ordered production do you think they'd have enough produced (from companies who haven't produced ventilators before, so they haven't even done bench testing to see if they have it right) in time?
"Trump told Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer he selected Easter as the day he wants businesses to reopen, saying he’d like to see 'packed churches all over our country' — the exact type of large gatherings that the CDC, the WHO, and Trump’s top health advisers have all urged suspended to help stop the spread of the virus." That would make a great visual for his re-election campaign, don't ya think so? "The town hall gave the impression of a dangerously misinformed president being propped up by sycophants who are unwilling or unable to ask him tough questions." But it was a great campaign rally.
"Half of the more than 2,000 Californians who’ve tested positive for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, are between the ages of 18 and 49, Newsom said in his daily evening Facebook Live briefing… About a fourth of the state’s confirmed coronavirus patients are between the age of 50 to 64, and another quarter were 65 or older." Well, they're in California so they look much younger anyway. After all, 65 is the new 40. I'm being stupidly glib, but the news is it's not just the olds that get this.
"Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday he plans to expand his already far-reaching executive order mandating a 14-day self-quarantine or isolation period for travelers coming to Florida from airports in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut amid the novel coronavirus pandemic… DeSantis, speaking at a press conference, said he will sign an additional order to make his original mandate apply retroactively to anyone who has traveled to Florida from those states in the last three weeks." Retroactively placing people in quarantine… I'm not sure that's a thing.
FEMA response workers have an unofficial metric for how bad a disaster is. It's called the Waffle House Index. Basically because they need a place to set up, they pick the Waffle House establishment because they are almost always open. If the Waffle House is open, the disaster is manageable. If the Waffle House is closed, well, the disaster is beyond control. "Waffle House has now closed 365 locations across the U.S. due to the coronavirus pandemic."
What a "peak" looks like. "Coronavirus deaths in the Lombardy region have surpassed those in China’s Hubei province, the original epicentre of the outbreak. Funeral homes and crematoria are being overwhelmed." With helpful photos, video, and information graphics to bring the total devastation into focus.
"The Spanish military has found older residents of some care homes 'completely abandoned' and even 'dead in their beds,' Defense Minister Margarita Robles said in a television interview on Monday… Last week, one privately owned home in Madrid reported 20 deaths and 75 infections, claiming it didn't have adequate material to take care of the sick residents and dead bodies." Mother of God. (Grokked from Bo Bolander)
"Hydroxychloroquine, a medicine for malaria that President Donald Trump has touted as a treatment for coronavirus, was no more effective than conventional care, a small study found… The report published by the Journal of Zhejiang University in China showed that patients who got the medicine didn’t fight off the new coronavirus more often than those who did not get the medicine."
In Ohio we have a light lock-down order. "'Why are we essential?' asks one employee. 'We make one type of envelope for the postal service--I'm afraid of losing my job if I don't show up.'" Yes, Virginia, poor people often have to choose between health and a paycheck. And many not so poor people also have to do the same.
"Despite a 12-page stay-at-home order from the Ohio Department of Health for everyone but essential businesses, just about every business is finding a way around it. In just the last day, I have received emails from people saying their employers are remaining open even though they are not "essential"; I'm talking companies that make toys (like Little Tykes in Hudson) to car washes."
"A Wegmans customer faces charges of terroristic threats and harassment after coughing on a worker at the grocery store chain’s Manalapan location and claiming he had the coronavirus, (NJ) Gov. Phil Murphy said Tuesday."
Never let a good crisis go to waste. "Anti-abortion forces led by Republican governors in Ohio, Texas and Mississippi are citing the critical shortage of medical supplies in trying to close abortion clinics, in some instances threatening jail time if they don't shut down and donate protective gear and other necessities to local hospitals. Meanwhile, in blue states like New York, Washington and New Jersey, governors are deeming abortion and family planning clinics an essential service that can continue during the pandemic."
"Target is putting some of its ambitious growth plans on hold as it focuses on the day-to-day realities of dealing with coronavirus outbreak… The big-box retailer said Wednesday it will delay plans to remodel hundreds of stores, open new ones and offer fresh groceries and beer to curbside pickup. Target is also withdrawing its financial guidance for the first quarter and fiscal year because of the unpredictable business climate."
"President Donald Trump and his top economic aide Larry Kudlow suggested Tuesday that a massive coronavirus stimulus bill could provide the foundation for an economic revival in the United States." Sure, sure, economies always bounce back, don't they?
"After days of rancorous negotiations, Republican and Democratic senators have reached a deal on a roughly $2 trillion stimulus package to ease the damaging economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak." And it appears that there will be overbite of the money after all.
"According to a summary circulated by the office of Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, businesses owned by the president, vice president, members of Congress or heads of executive departments would be excluded from receiving that aid. The block also would also extend to companies controlled by their children, spouses or in-laws." Wow, something done correctly. Who knew they could do it. :: waits for the president to veto the bill because of those exclusions :: Shoulda divested, Donnie. (Grokked from Kathryn Cramer)
"President Donald Trump says he wants the nation 'opened up and just raring to go by Easter' -- a date just more than two weeks away that few health experts believe will be sufficient in containing the spread of coronavirus." We still haven't hit peak infections. It'll be two weeks after that point.
"The coronavirus crisis has sent the economy into a tailspin in the United States and around the globe. The restaurant industry has ground to a halt. So have air travel, auto manufacturing, hotels, gyms, and cruise lines. The stock market has posted enormous losses and wild daily swings, to the point that trading has sometimes been paused altogether, and the price of oil has plummeted. Layoffs across the country are taking place in waves. We’re producing less, spending less, and consuming less… After more than a decade of expansion, the next recession is here." What I think is the coronavirus downturn has exposed several fault lines within the economy and the stresses presented opened them wider. "'Right now, we’re just trying to manage the fall,' said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan group that advocates for fiscal responsibility." When the fall is all that's left, it matters a great deal. And keep in mind "Anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen with the US economy, or when it’s going to bounce back, is guessing.
"The United States and China are locked in a struggle over influence and messaging about the coronavirus pandemic even as governments around the world struggle to control the outbreak… This week, Washington claimed a small victory." So much winning.
"In 'The Uses of Enchantment,' the psychoanalyst Bruno Bettelheim makes a beautiful argument for the kinds of reckoning that fairy tales permit: They allow children to face primal fears (parental abandonment) and imagine acts of rebellion (defying authority) in a world reassuringly removed from the one they live in. Enchanted woods and castles are so conspicuously fantastical, their situations so extreme, that children don’t need to feel destabilized by their upheavals. I wondered if that was still true for Lily, whose loss lived more naturally in fairy tales than other places. It can be a fine line between stories that give our fears a necessary stage and stories that deepen them — that make us more afraid." On being the step-mother in real life and how fairy tales help shape our understanding of the world. (Grokked from Terri Windling)
"Prior to March 18th, the biggest gating items were believed to be a few final parachute tests and a whole lot of paperwork and reviews, as well as some important but less showstopping astronaut training. Unfortunately, SpaceX has suffered two unforeseen issues of varying severity in the last few days, both of which are now all but guaranteed to impact Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut schedule."
"After days of promoting xenophobia and using a racist name for the coronavirus, President Donald Trump is finally acknowledging the discrimination that Asian Americans are experiencing, while failing to confront his role in contributing to it." Apparently there are still good people on both sides.
"Gunmen and suicide bombers raided a Sikh religious complex in the Afghan capital of Kabul on Wednesday, killing 25 people before security forces killed all of the attackers, the government said."
Tweet of my heart: @plibin I was just on a Zoom call that ended automagically after 40 minutes because the organizer was on a free tier. This is the single greatest advance to meeting productivity that I’ve ever seen. Would pay extra for this feature. (Grokked from Robert J Bennett)
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