"A while back, I was talking with a (non-client) friend just back from a book event. Their book had come out weeks before, and they’d just gotten a lovely note from the manager of the bookstore. The manager was thrilled with the turnout and sales from the event. Over 100 people showed up and they sold over 30 books." The economics of the book tour. But the main thing isn't the number of books you might sell just at that moment, and Kate McKean addresses some of this. Advertising is not coupon clipping. These things are meant for their add on effects. The people who show up to book tours are the "fans", who are energized by the meeting and hopefully will then become influencers who can drive more sales. You want them to be evangelistic about your book. How do you discover new authors? Probably (and I'm going from some research here) because one of your friends talked about the book, someone you trust mentioned it, you read a review, or (and why libraries are important) a librarian suggested you might like it. So how do those people find out about new books? (Grokked from Jason Sanford)
"InfoWars founder Alex Jones was arrested near Austin on Tuesday morning for allegedly driving while intoxicated, according to the Austin American-Statesman." (Grokked from Jim Wright)
"Four people have died and 30 have been hospitalized with listeria, likely after eating recalled enoki mushrooms from the company Sun Hong Foods, authorities said… Sun Hong Foods recalled the mushrooms Monday because they may be contaminated with listeria, according to the Food and Drug Administration’s website."
"The number of coronavirus cases in the United States is continuing to skyrocket, and the surgeon general says the epidemic hasn't peaked here yet. Delays at the federal level have left many state and local health authorities racing to catch up, with backlogs of people waiting to be tested for the COVID-19 disease."
"If you thought coronavirus was no big deal or if you thought it was going to go away, wake up… Your life is about to change." Unfortunately the article covers the macro and not much of the micro (like "social distancing"). (Grokked from Laura J Mixon)
"The United Kingdom's health minister has been diagnosed with novel coronavirus infection – one of nearly 400 confirmed cases in that country, as Turkey on Wednesday announced its first case of the disease, which has now spread to some 110 countries… Meanwhile, Italy, which reported 168 new deaths on Tuesday, bringing the total there to 631, has reported more than 10,000 total cases — placing it second only to China in the number of reported infections. The country has encouraged its 62 million people to stay at home even as its economy, reliant on tourism, manufacturing and retail, is taking a heavy hit." That reported cases in China are dropping is a very good sign. And right now the numbers point us towards conclusions that 1) the disease can be treated with early detection and 2) there might be an end point of infections.
"Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Tuesday he was unaware of any indication from his agency that physical barriers along America’s borders would help halt the spread of the coronavirus in the U.S. — contradicting an assertion President Donald Trump made earlier in the day." So, back in the early 2000's, every defense contractor changed the thrust of their arguments for new weapons systems to be all about "fighting terror." Including the XM2001 Crusader, a new self-propelled howitzer. A howitzer. Which didn't fit on the C130. And that was resold as a great weapon against the "terror threat." Viruses and bacteria can not be stopped by a wall.
"In the face of mixed messages and confusion about who can or should be tested for the coronavirus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention posted updated guidance for doctors Sunday about when to test a patient… The short answer is, if your doctor feels a test is appropriate, he or she can request the test. But a request doesn't guarantee that you'll get one." No matter what the president says, you can't get a test just by asking.
"Three security screeners at a Northern California airport have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the Transportation Security Administration confirmed in an email late Tuesday." And away we go.
"A contractor who tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) lied about his health and continued working construction at Camp Walker, a US military base in South Korea, while sick." This is my shocked face. As compared to employees or military personnel, contractors for the most part only get paid when they show up.
Many of our procedures in healthcare aren't really based on the science. "A shortage of specialized masks has prompted federal health officials to loosen their recommendations on the face protection that front line health-care workers should use to prevent infection from the highly contagious disease caused by the novel coronavirus." A shortage of materials shouldn't change the recommendations if they're based on science. And no, a surgical mask is not the same as an N95. This is just stupid.
"First of all, don't panic. Remember that it's still flu and cold season in the U.S., and seasonal allergies are starting up, too. Unless your symptoms are getting dramatically worse or you feel short of breath, you may not need to seek medical treatment (though it's OK to call your doctor and ask)." If you feel like you can't take a full breath, go to the urgent care or ER.
Today, two On the Media podcasts covering medical reporting in the US. "As the global death toll from novel coronavirus continues to increase, the American media are looking to national public health institutions to make sense of the scope and severity of the damage. Much reporting has come from semi-regular phone pressers with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. But over the past week, the CDC telebriefings have shifted — in tone, substance and frequency." On controlling the message for publicity's sake. Blink twice if you're being held captive. "The press called out President Trump after he dismissed an alarming coronavirus statistic on – quote – a 'hunch.' On this week’s On The Media, what both Trump and his critics miss in their pursuit of certainty. Plus, why the political scientist who predicted the 2018 midterms thinks Democrats will beat Trump in 2020. And, how the White House is seeking to re-write international norms about 'women’s health,' 'women’s rights,' and 'gender equality' by avoiding those very words." Most discussion about Orwell's 1984 focus on doublethink and the slogans, but we often ignore newspeak because it's very uncomfortable. However, it is the most insidious concept and the most dangerous.
More canaries. "Welti and her colleagues noticed that data collected over the past two decades showed the number of grasshoppers declining. Yet it wasn't for lack of food. The amount of grass on this prairie actually has been increasing, which Welti found 'kind of interesting.'… The researchers wondered if perhaps the crucial factor wasn't the amount of grass available to eat, but its nutritional content. 'Grasshoppers, even compared to other insects, are more sensitive to changes in plant quality,' Welti says." As I've linked to articles before, the same thing is happening with our food as well.
"Chatham House Chair Jim O’Neill criticized the emergency cut to interest rates from Bank of England (BOE) as 'a mistake and too soon.'… The central bank followed the U.S. Federal Reserve Wednesday in announcing a 50-basis point reduction to its benchmark rate, from 0.75% to 0.25%, in a bid to cushion the economic impact of the new coronavirus outbreak."
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply yet again Wednesday morning after staging a rally a day earlier. Just on Monday the stock market had its worst drop since 2008 amid fears that the growing coronavirus epidemic would push the global economy into recession." It's like nobody remembers what a bear market is like (technically a 20% drop for 2 months).
"It's been a wild week for the financial world. At one point, the U.S. stock market was down nearly 20 percent from its peak over fears about the impact of the coronavirus… We explain how to ride out a stock market crash." Bulls make money, bears make money, rabbits get skinned, pigs get slaughtered.
After several days of "OMG what are OPEC and Russia doing, they can't possibly survive this price war" some people are finally getting it. "Vladimir Putin knows America's fragile oil industry is built on a mountain of debt. So when Saudi Arabia called for production cuts to mitigate oversupply, Putin decided to pounce… Russia shocked the world last week by blowing up its shaky alliance with OPEC. Moscow's refusal to join with the cartel is aimed in part at drowning US shale oil companies that rely on higher prices in a sea of cheap crude." After a call from an small oil-baron, the president started talking about a bailout of the fossil fuels industry. You know, the people who were sloppy with money for the last decade. But OPEC and Russia only need to take the pain for about 10 months to raise the cost of restarting the US fracking drive to where it would be above $100 a barrel (last time this happened, oil companies sold their drilling rigs to South America and Africa, and many suppliers of welded pipe closed their doors).
"Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accused Greek security forces on Wednesday of behaving like Nazis for using force against migrants trying to cross the border from Turkey into the European Union."
"Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has approved the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners as part of efforts to secure a peace deal with the insurgent group… The presidential decree requires all prisoners to give 'a written guarantee to not return to the battlefield'." I'm sure that'll do it.
"Given that conservatives hold the power on the Supreme Court, Louisiana still remains likely to prevail in June Medical Services LLC v. Russo. But Murrill’s performance was so weak, and the liberal justices successfully exposed so many flaws in her argument, that it raised questions about whether Roberts might join his liberal colleagues to strike down Louisiana’s law." I don't have as much hope, because, again, this is not about logic or the capability of the argument.
"Constitutional changes allowing Vladimir Putin to run for president again in 2024 sailed through Russia’s lower house of parliament on Wednesday, opening the way for him to potentially stay in power until 2036." Waves to my Russian friends. He's just not that into you.
"A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that the Justice Department must give House lawmakers secret grand jury materials from former special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation." Expect this to be appealed to SCOTUS.
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