March Fourth Primary

My State (Ohio) moved up the primary for Presidential Election years so that we would be more of a decider than an annointer. How's that worked out so far, Ohio State Legislature? Idiots. Yeah, everybody else moved their elections up as well. Gee, couldn't see that coming, could we.

Well, some people I respect very much have posted the way they're voting in the primaries, even the point of some of them saying that either they won't or can't (given specific rules in their states), so I think I will be doing the same.

I should start by saying the person I really wanted to vote for suspended his campaign right after the S. Carolina event. Yes, I wanted Edwards. I liked him last time, I still do. After Super Tuesday I could see his tactics change. He was going for as many candidates as he could get to then influence the platform and candidate during the convention in August. When he stopped with only 25 or so delegates, I thought he had abandoned that strategy as well. Turns out those 25 might mean the difference, although Obama's surge and momentum might make them less important than they looked two weeks ago. I don't think Edwards is playing for a VP slot, he doesn't have enough delegates for that, but a good post, say Secretary of HUD or maybe President of the World Bank.

So there are really only two candidates on the Democratic Party side left. As a registered and elected Democrat, there's no fooling the people at the elections board that I might be Republican (because they all know me by sight). Not that I would do that anyway, however there is some speculation that the other side has been entertaining such shenanigans (the guilty tend to be suspicious of others). I've been looking at their campaigns and I find myself disappointed by both of them. One for not showing a harder edge and the other for forgetting what campaigning is all about.

A lot of smart people are voting for Obama, and I can't say I blame them. Not only does he have the oratory down, he has an energized and mobilized campaign running on the ground. Note to DNC, you could learn a damn frickin' lot by hiring these people. From what I can see many are fresh (or fresher) faces than some other campaigns are using. Obama has a lot of things going for him, a lot of things I like. In the end, though, I can't see him running hard against a McCain-Romney ticket. Sure, in current poles he wins the popular vote by a greater percentage, but it's all still within the margins of error. And we've seen how well polls work so far. I think Obama can rally the base, give courage to timid people (as someone whom I have great respect for once said), but that's really the job of the VP candidate. Plus, Obama's greatest asset is his charisma. Charisma wears thin quickly these days. Unless I see some scrappy coming from his campaign real soon now, I don't think he could survive in the general election. Also, in the TV commercials where he wears plaid shirts, well, I just don't buy it. He looks uncomfortable. The suit fits him better.

Clinton has that scrappiness that will be needed for the general election. Sure, her personality rubs people the wrong way, until they meet her (and then she has that strange lower level charisma that wins them over).

Clinton on top of the ticket will galvanize the Conservative base (BTW, note how many times recently the "Conservatives" have distanced themselves from the Republican Party) to vote for "Anybody But Clinton." I think many pundits have under calculated that the Conservative base, the white side anyway (as many "Conservatives" are African-American), would muster up support to keep Obama out of the Whitehouse as well. Sure, they'll couch their language in other terms, but it'll really be about keeping a Black Man out (and they have never doubted Obama's Blackness), just like much of the anti-Hillary is about a women in a position of power. So the Democratic Nominee will face stiff competition there anyway. Clinton, however, will fight back. Obama, while used to Illinois Politics (which is a rough sport) wouldn't fare well in such a fight. It would remove some of his charisma to fight dirty. Everybody expects Clinton to fight dirty.

I believe in Clinton's Health Care plan more than I do in Obama's plan. And Health Care is the big stealth issue this election (it's all about the economy, and Health Insurance is pulling us down more at least in perception as most people consider health care as voluntary). Also, this summer Iraq is going to explode again (if it waits that long). Obama hasn't been positioning himself as someone with a plan, only as someone who was against it. Clinton could say she has a plan and people will listen. The economy is about to take a dumper (okay, well, people in power are about to get a rude awakening to the real state of the economy RSN). Clinton has the chops to say she knows how to bring back a robust economy and she has the resume (cribbed from Bill) to show it.

On a personal level, I did very well during the mid 90s while Bill was President. I've lost jobs during both Bush's (father and son) administrations. Both while we were at war with Iraq actually. So while people maybe decrying Clinton running on that record, I'm actually okay with it.

In the end, I can see a Clinton-Obama ticket more than I could see an Obama-Clinton ticket. Sure, many would complain with Obama as "second," but with an open deal like that which Cheney had with Bush during the first administration could help defuse that. And I think Clinton would be stupid (which I don't think she is, by any extent) to not make such a deal and make it part of the stump speech.

So, unless something very unforeseen happens before March 4, I'll be marking the box next to Hillary Clinton's name. I'm also hoping for a contentious convention. I want it to be right down to the wire. And the DNC would do good to allow all-access passes to the press. Show the world both the pettiness and high ideas this party is capable of having. It'll be messy, it'll be fractious, it'll be excellent TV and actually promote the Democratic Brand. People would actually watch and pay attention.

In either case, I have no problems voting for either Clinton or Obama come the general election. No problems what so ever.