I watch the ripples change their size
But never leave the stream
Of warm impermanence
And so the days float through my eyes
But still the days seem the same
And these children that you spit on
As they try to change their worlds
Are immune to your consultations
They're quite aware of what they're goin' through

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Oil, Oil Everywhere, We're Practically Swimming In Profits

Wow, look, some people are starting to talk sense (somewhat, but with inflated estimates) about domestic oil production. And they're using some numbers, but not explaining those numbers which takes us back to the old quote, "numbers don't lie, but liars sure use numbers."

So here's some fun stuff, from the US Government itself (that link can start you out on the journey). First of all, hey, look, Saudi Arabia is now the #2 oil importer to the US. They moved up fast in the past few years (they used to be #4).

If we can tap all the offshore drilling areas (includes East, West, and Gulf Coast) we could tap 18 Billion Barrels (total) of the black gold. Sounds impressive, no?

Well, currently we import around 5 Billion Barrels of oil a year. So let's say we could instantly get all that oil out, it would only last us a little over 3 years.

The President says ANWR could produce 10-12 billion barrels. Well, he's a bit off, 95% probability of about 6 billion barrels, only a 5% probability of 16 billion, leading to a mean of 10.3 billion barrels. Okay, but I'll point out, when you want to skew the numbers, only get two data points (earlier estimates, ie. 1980, came in with a mean of 2 billion barrels). So let's say we get lucky and get 10 billion barrels, doesn't mean crap because it's heavy oil, and our refineries (the majority of them) aren't built to handle it. Yeah, didn't see that one coming. So this oil would get sold to the Asia Rim.

Lastly we've been hearing about the Green River (and other) formations (about 800 billion barrels). I'll remind you that this is shale oil. It is only profitable if the price per barrel is over $70. Not a problem now. The technology to extract the oil is not proven, and the oil is mined (like they do in Canada, primer on tar sands, and for contrast a more critical analysis), not drilled. I wonder where they will put all that shale powder when they're done.

And now you know.

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